Game Recap: LAK 3, PIT 2, November 9, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK3

FinalSun, Nov 9, 2025Every game that night

PIT2

LAK beat PIT 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.30 expected goals to 3.15. K. Fiala led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Graves had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. D. Kuemper stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	1	0	2	3
PIT	1	1	0	2

1st 8:48PITT. Novak0.26 xG
1st 14:58LAKA. KopitarPP0.04 xG
2nd 7:48PITA. ManthaPP0.13 xG
3rd 4:49LAKC. Perry0.10 xG
3rd 11:52LAKK. Fiala0.16 xG

Team Stats

LAKPIT

27Shots on goal33

2.30Expected goals3.15

59Shot attempts58

205v5 shots on goal27

1/4Power play1/2

9Hits19

7Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways16

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.30 xGPIT 3.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK27 on goal, 3 scored

PIT32 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	1	1	2	7	0	0	+1	0	23:19	4:43
C. Perry	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	15:50	4:32
T. Moore	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	18:32	0:00
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	18:04	2:07
A. Kopitar	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	17:33	4:37
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	21:13	3:57
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	18:11	4:17
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	17:02	1:53
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:14	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:23	0:00
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7:50	1:46
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6:17	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	23:16	2:27
C. Ceci	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	2	15:47	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	22:26	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	17:24	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	16:47	1:41
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	33	31	2	.939	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	18:25	2:45
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:29	1:13
T. Novak	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	13:09	1:05
V. Koivunen	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	12:46	1:05
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	21:31	2:51
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	20:39	2:45
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:45	2:51
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:22	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:02	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	2	11:46	0:00
J. Koppanen	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	10:38	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	10:13	1:09
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	3	2	1	-1	0	22:04	0:52
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	0	0	20:52	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	27:43	3:04
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	18:27	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	14:25	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	5	1	2	0	2	13:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Murashov	27	24	3	.889	58:10	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1K. Fiala18:36Q. Byfield15:18A. Laferriere13:17

Line 2P. Danault14:12T. Moore16:15C. Perry10:45

Line 3A. Kopitar11:27A. Kempe12:22J. Armia8:05

Line 4W. Foegele10:35A. Turcotte6:17

Pair 1D. Doughty18:08M. Anderson18:30

Pair 2B. Dumoulin15:56C. Ceci14:42

Pair 3B. Clarke15:06J. Edmundson13:35

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby16:04B. Rust13:49B. Kindel13:04

Line 2A. Mantha12:16T. Novak12:04E. Malkin13:50

Line 3D. Heinen10:30B. Lizotte10:35C. Dewar11:00

Line 4V. Koivunen11:41K. Hayes9:04J. Koppanen8:56

Pair 1E. Karlsson19:36P. Wotherspoon17:29

Pair 2K. Letang16:21R. Shea15:16

Pair 3C. Clifton14:25R. Graves13:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBlake Lizotte PIT Faces LAK, his team until May 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.3, PIT 2.9	LAK 3, PIT 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	LAK 29.1, PIT 27.3	LAK 27, PIT 33
Win chance	LAK 56%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	3.1	7	0.87	2	32%	1
LAK A. Kempe	3.0	4	0.99	0	36%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.6	1	0.81	0	29%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.6	1	1.02	0	33%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.3	2	0.51	1	20%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	3	0.68	0	14%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.2	3	0.78	0	24%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.1	1	0.52	1	22%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.1	4	0.79	1	24%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.1	2	0.46	0	20%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.9	1	0.57	2	26%	1
LAK W. Foegele	1.8	1	0.39	0	17%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.8	3	0.43	0	8%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.7	3	0.34	1	7%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.6	2	0.66	0	26%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.5	0	0.55	0	17%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	0	0.50	1	11%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	2	0.27	0	12%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.4	2	0.48	1	20%	1
PIT T. Novak	1.4	1	0.39	1	16%	1
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	1	0.82	1	24%	1
PIT K. Hayes	1.3	2	0.27	0	12%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.3	0	0.37	0	15%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.2	3	0.29	1	8%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.1	3	0.34	0	14%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	0	0.30	0	14%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	0	0.22	0	4%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.0	2	0.28	0	9%	0
LAK C. Ceci	1.0	0	0.22	1	4%	0
PIT C. Clifton	1.0	0	0.21	0	4%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	1	0.19	1	3%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
PIT J. Koppanen	0.9	0	0.15	0	10%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.8	0	0.23	0	5%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	0	0.20	0	6%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.7	5	0.14	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.