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Game Recap
MIN5
PHI7
PHI beat MIN 7-5, and the chances backed it up: 3.85 expected goals to 3.06. S. Couturier scored three for PHI. M. Boldy had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. S. Ersson stopped 21 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| PHI | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
- 1st 1:18PHIS. Couturier0.21 xG
- 1st 3:51PHIN. Seeler0.07 xG
- 2nd 14:54MINB. Faber0.14 xG
- 2nd 15:27MINM. Foligno0.18 xG
- 2nd 18:16PHIM. Michkov0.07 xG
- 2nd 19:56MINJ. Eriksson EkPP0.08 xG
- 3rd 2:18MINM. Foligno0.02 xG
- 3rd 4:55PHIT. KonecnyPP0.29 xG
- 3rd 8:26PHIS. Couturier0.04 xG
- 3rd 13:28MINJ. Middleton0.01 xG
- 3rd 17:36PHIR. Ristolainen0.46 xG
- 3rd 19:00PHIS. CouturierEN0.86 xG
Team Stats
MINPHI
26Shots on goal23
3.06Expected goals3.85
66Shot attempts47
155v5 shots on goal20
1/4Power play1/2
9Hits24
12Blocked shots22
6Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways15
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 3.06 xGPHI 3.85 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:36 | 5:05 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:09 | 4:23 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 | 22:58 | 5:08 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:41 | 5:05 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:00 | 1:17 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:26 | 1:34 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:59 | 1:14 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 8:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 7:46 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:46 | 1:47 |
| B. Faber | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 26:48 | 4:33 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:45 | 0:12 |
| J. Middleton | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:37 | 0:09 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 1:40 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 22 | 16 | 6 | .727 | 58:16 | Loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 19:45 | 1:09 |
| S. Couturier | C | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 0 | 17:32 | 0:29 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 17:45 | 1:09 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:40 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:40 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:52 | 0:00 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 15:14 | 0:03 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:15 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 18:39 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:16 | 1:09 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 26 | 21 | 5 | .808 | 59:44 | Win |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.1, PHI 2.9 | MIN 5, PHI 7 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 12 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 26.4, PHI 31.5 | MIN 26, PHI 23 |
| Win chance | MIN 53% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.4 | 3 | 1.40 | 2 | 46% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.4 | 3 | 0.64 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 3.0 | 4 | 0.85 | 5 | 31% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.7 | 9 | 0.94 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.6 | 3 | 0.77 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.2 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 2.1 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 1 | 0.73 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.0 | 5 | 0.39 | 5 | 13% | 3 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.9 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.8 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.8 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 1 | 0.17 | 2 | 3% | 1 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.19 | 2 | 3% | 1 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| PHI E. Johnson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 0.9 | 3 | 0.38 | 2 | 16% | 2 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.6 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.