Game Recap: MIN 5, PIT 0, November 21, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN5

FinalFri, Nov 21, 2025Every game that night

PIT0

MIN beat PIT 5-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.91 expected goals to 1.76. M. Boldy led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Brodin had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. F. Gustavsson stopped 19 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	3	2	0	5
PIT	0	0	0	0

1st 3:57MINM. Boldy0.29 xG
1st 9:39MINJ. Eriksson EkPP0.08 xG
1st 11:42MINM. Johansson0.09 xG
2nd 1:09MINK. Kaprizov0.07 xG
2nd 17:46MINM. Boldy0.03 xG

Team Stats

MINPIT

21Shots on goal19

2.91Expected goals1.76

51Shot attempts51

185v5 shots on goal18

1/3Power play0/2

20Hits9

14Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways22

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.91 xGPIT 1.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN21 on goal, 5 scored

PIT19 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	2	1	3	4	1	0	+3	0	19:13	4:17
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	19:22	4:05
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+3	0	16:38	4:15
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	17:19	4:02
M. Johansson	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	15:06	1:42
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	8	1	0	2	18:00	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	17:02	0:14
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	14:10	1:28
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:31	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	11:13	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:25	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	8:08	1:29
B. Faber	D	0	2	2	1	1	0	+3	0	22:20	1:32
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	4	0	3	+3	0	22:22	0:15
Z. Buium	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	20:18	4:14
J. Middleton	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	15:23	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	2	18:13	1:17
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	19	19	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Kindel	C	0	0	1	0	0	16:42	2:33
E. Malkin	C	2	0	0	-1	0	15:56	2:34
B. Rust	RW	3	1	0	-3	0	15:56	2:33
S. Poulin	RW	1	1	2	0	0	15:48	0:00
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	0	-1	0	15:12	1:23
S. Crosby	C	3	0	1	-3	0	14:58	2:36
K. Hayes	RW	1	0	1	-1	0	14:53	1:27
C. Dewar	C	3	2	0	-2	2	14:49	0:00
T. Novak	C	2	0	0	0	0	14:33	1:19
J. Koppanen	LW	0	1	0	-1	0	14:15	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	1	0	1	0	0	12:37	1:25
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	4	12:15	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	22:46	2:33
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	1	0	0	20:09	0:08
K. Letang	D	2	0	2	-4	0	19:54	1:21
C. Clifton	D	0	3	1	0	0	18:21	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	2	-4	0	18:08	0:08
R. Graves	D	0	1	1	0	0	17:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	10	6	4	.600	21:06	Loss
S. Murashov	11	10	1	.909	38:51

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Foligno14:43Y. Trenin17:10V. Hinostroza6:34

Line 2M. Zuccarello13:17K. Kaprizov15:17D. Yurov12:42

Line 3M. Johansson12:29M. Boldy12:58J. Ek10:27

Line 4T. Pitlick11:13B. Jones10:04L. Ohgren13:31

Pair 1J. Brodin20:05B. Faber18:49

Pair 2Z. Bogosian15:19Z. Buium16:01

Pair 3J. Spurgeon16:05J. Middleton14:11

PIT

Line 1T. Novak13:14B. Kindel14:09S. Poulin14:39

Line 2E. Malkin13:19K. Hayes13:23A. Mantha13:46

Line 3C. Dewar12:23S. Crosby12:19B. Rust11:41

Line 4J. Koppanen10:55B. Lizotte11:25D. Heinen9:09

Pair 1C. Clifton17:42R. Graves16:28

Pair 2E. Karlsson17:03P. Wotherspoon16:56

Pair 3K. Letang16:25R. Shea15:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamConnor Dewar PIT Faces MIN, his team until Mar 20243 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.9, PIT 3.1	MIN 5, PIT 0
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	MIN 27.4, PIT 30.0	MIN 21, PIT 19
Win chance	PIT 53%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	2	1.23	2	44%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.2	2	0.75	2	28%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	4	0.95	3	32%	2
PIT B. Rust	2.6	3	0.83	0	31%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	3	1.04	0	34%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	0	0.78	0	14%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.1	2	0.81	0	25%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.1	0	0.85	1	23%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.1	0	0.46	0	21%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.9	2	0.41	0	8%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.8	1	0.37	2	9%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	3	0.30	0	13%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.5	1	0.52	0	21%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	2	0.45	0	19%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	1	0.48	1	16%	1
PIT K. Hayes	1.5	1	0.32	0	13%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.4	0	0.37	0	9%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.3	4	0.32	1	7%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	0	0.23	0	12%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	0	0.32	0	15%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.1	0	0.23	1	6%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.1	1	0.34	0	14%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.1	2	0.26	0	11%	0
MIN Z. Buium	1.1	0	0.34	1	7%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	1.1	0	0.18	0	9%	0
PIT C. Clifton	1.1	0	0.24	0	4%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	1	0.32	0	15%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	0	0.24	0	4%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	2	0.33	0	12%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.9	0	0.17	0	5%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.9	0	0.06	0	6%	0
PIT J. Koppanen	0.9	0	0.19	0	10%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.9	0	0.23	0	6%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.7	2	0.13	0	6%	0
PIT S. Poulin	0.6	1	0.16	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.