Game Recap: MIN 5, TOR 2, November 12, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN5

FinalThu, Nov 12, 2026Every game that night

TOR2

MIN beat TOR 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.39 expected goals to 2.48. M. Boldy scored three for MIN. O. Ekman-Larsson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Wallstedt stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	1	1	3	5
TOR	0	2	0	2

1st 17:53MINM. Boldy0.24 xG
2nd 4:05TORA. Matthews0.20 xG
2nd 6:59TORZ. MacEwen0.13 xG
2nd 9:55MINM. BoldyPP0.07 xG
3rd 3:59MINM. Boldy0.11 xG
3rd 7:34MINM. McCarron0.20 xG
3rd 19:03MIND. YurovEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

MINTOR

26Shots on goal28

4.39Expected goals2.48

57Shot attempts65

195v5 shots on goal22

1/3Power play0/2

19Hits21

19Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways13

5Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 4.39 xGTOR 2.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN25 on goal, 5 scored

TOR27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	3	3	5	0	0	+3	0	23:27	4:09
M. Boldy	LW	3	0	3	5	2	0	+1	0	22:57	3:41
D. Yurov	RW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	0	16:49	1:16
M. McCarron	C	1	0	1	1	6	1	+1	0	16:47	0:39
B. Coleman	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	15:51	1:14
R. Hartman	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	14:07	2:29
N. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9:36	0:00
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	15:03	1:21
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:26	0:00
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:20	3:25
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	10:52	1:27
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	-2	0	8:13	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	2	28:29	4:20
Z. Bogosian	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	14:38	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	23:49	0:15
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	0	19:45	0:39
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	16:20	0:00
M. Kiersted	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	12:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	28	26	2	.929	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. MacEwen	RW	1	1	2	1	2	0	+1	0	10:08	0:00
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	21:40	2:55
T. Blueger	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:52	0:00
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	21:55	2:56
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	21:34	2:58
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-3	0	18:41	1:05
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	0	16:55	2:47
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:15	1:13
R. Tverberg	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	13:16	0:55
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	12:35	0:00
G. McKenna	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	10:38	1:05
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:16	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	2	2	4	-1	4	25:56	2:55
T. Stecher	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	-2	0	21:07	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	6	1	1	-2	0	21:17	1:04
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	19:27	0:07
C. McWard	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	13:13	0:00
D. Mermis	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	12:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	25	21	4	.840	57:02	Loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov17:59M. Boldy16:40J. Ek7:59

Line 2M. McCarron13:28B. Brink13:42B. Coleman12:17

Line 3Y. Trenin11:32D. Yurov12:13M. Shabanov9:25

Line 4N. Foligno8:47M. Foligno8:13R. Hartman11:38

Pair 1Q. Hughes24:04J. Brodin19:19

Pair 2O. Maatta14:14J. Spurgeon14:51

Pair 3Z. Bogosian11:57M. Kiersted11:57

TOR

Line 1J. Roslovic16:45A. Matthews16:22E. Cowan14:26

Line 2J. Tavares12:36R. Tverberg10:52W. Nylander16:43

Line 3T. Blueger11:00Z. MacEwen9:19B. Duhaime10:06

Line 4N. Paul10:38D. Joshua8:06G. McKenna8:07

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson17:35T. Stecher16:51

Pair 2D. Raddysh20:05J. McCabe16:01

Pair 3D. Mermis11:30C. McWard13:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 17 overs hit (41%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	+130	-132	2	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	+125	-138	5	Over
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	+105	-115	5	Over
MIN B. Coleman	2.5	+136	-170	1	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	2.5	+120	-135	2	Under
MIN J. Ek	2.5	-150	+125	3	Over
TOR J. Roslovic	2.5	+145	-180	3	Over
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	+150	-165	3	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	+116	-135	4	Over
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	+105	-110	1	Under
MIN B. Brink	1.5	+100	-120	1	Under
MIN D. Yurov	1.5	+115	-135	4	Over
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	-115	+104	1	Under
TOR G. McKenna	1.5	+110	-129	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	1.5	+115	-135	1	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	1.5	-115	-115	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	1.5	+111	-135	0	Under

5 of 36 overs hit (14%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+150	-210	1	Over
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+475	-600	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+320	-550	0	Under
TOR B. Duhaime	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
TOR C. McWard	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
TOR D. Joshua	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
TOR D. Mermis	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+575	-750	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+450	-650	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+425	-550	0	Under
TOR G. McKenna	0.5	+425	-700	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+210	-270	0	Under
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+300	-390	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	+240	-350	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+105	-130	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+155	-175	3	Over
MIN M. Foligno	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
MIN M. Kiersted	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+600	-800	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+300	-370	0	Under
MIN N. Foligno	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+1250	-2800	0	Under
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+380	-650	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+460	-550	0	Under
TOR R. Tverberg	0.5	+700	-900	0	Under
TOR T. Blueger	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
TOR T. Stecher	0.5	+1750	-3500	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+210	-260	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
TOR Z. MacEwen	0.5	+1100	-2000	1	Over

5 of 15 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+105	-130	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+230	-295	1	Over
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+138	-155	1	Over
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+340	-370	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+240	-285	0	Under
TOR G. McKenna	0.5	+280	-380	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+115	-145	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+185	-225	0	Under
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	+164	-209	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	-105	-106	3	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+230	-310	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-190	+150	1	Over
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+116	-135	0	Under

7 of 17 overs hit (41%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	1.5	+135	-170	3	Over
MIN M. Boldy	1.5	+170	-230	3	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	1.5	+170	-220	1	Under
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	-220	+165	1	Over
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+140	-150	1	Over
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+100	-105	1	Over
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+164	-180	2	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
TOR G. McKenna	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+225	-280	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	-155	+135	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	-105	-120	0	Under
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	-125	+110	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+102	-130	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+141	-175	1	Over
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	-180	+145	0	Under

3 of 16 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+180	-240	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+210	-295	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+525	-1000	0	Under
TOR G. McKenna	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+350	-525	0	Under
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	+260	-375	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+155	-200	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+200	-215	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+280	-550	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+140	-185	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+240	-280	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
TOR A. Stolarz	26.5	+100	-130	21	Under
MIN J. Wallstedt	24.5	+100	-118	26	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
TOR J. McCabe	2.5	+120	-165	2	Under
MIN J. Brodin	1.5	-170	+120	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneDakota Joshua TOR 3 points from 100Not yet: 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.5, TOR 3.1	MIN 5, TOR 2
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	MIN 30.9, TOR 27.2	MIN 26, TOR 28
Win chance	MIN 56%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.7	5	1.07	3	36%	3
TOR A. Matthews	3.3	2	1.00	1	39%	1
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.1	5	1.24	3	42%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.9	3	0.78	0	27%	0
TOR D. Raddysh	2.8	2	0.74	1	17%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.6	4	1.21	1	19%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.6	1	0.98	0	34%	0
TOR J. Roslovic	2.4	3	0.68	0	26%	0
MIN B. Coleman	2.3	1	0.52	1	22%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.1	3	0.73	0	28%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.7	1	0.52	0	18%	0
TOR G. McKenna	1.7	0	0.49	0	17%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.7	1	0.41	0	7%	0
MIN M. Shabanov	1.6	0	0.55	0	18%	0
MIN R. Hartman	1.6	0	0.40	1	16%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.5	1	0.30	1	12%	1
MIN D. Yurov	1.5	4	0.43	2	19%	1
MIN B. Brink	1.4	1	0.45	0	15%	0
TOR N. Paul	1.4	0	0.35	0	17%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.2	0	0.30	0	7%	0
TOR T. Blueger	1.2	0	0.30	1	11%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.2	6	0.31	0	6%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	1	0.26	0	11%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	4	0.21	1	6%	0
TOR Z. MacEwen	1.1	1	0.17	2	8%	1
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	2	0.29	0	5%	0
MIN M. Foligno	0.9	0	0.25	0	12%	0
TOR B. Duhaime	0.9	1	0.18	0	9%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	1	0.29	0	14%	0
MIN O. Maatta	0.9	0	0.32	0	6%	0
TOR D. Mermis	0.9	0	0.14	0	5%	0
TOR C. McWard	0.9	1	0.12	0	3%	0
MIN M. Kiersted	0.9	0	0.17	0	4%	0
MIN N. Foligno	0.8	0	0.24	1	8%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	0	0.14	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.