Game Recap: MTL 4, PHI 6, March 27, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL4

FinalThu, Mar 27, 2025Every game that night

PHI6

PHI beat MTL 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 5.66 expected goals to 3.58. M. Michkov led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Michkov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. S. Ersson stopped 26 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	1	0	3	4
PHI	3	0	3	6

1st 1:55PHIM. Michkov0.12 xG
1st 7:55MTLA. Newhook0.13 xG
1st 10:13PHIN. Deslauriers0.10 xG
1st 11:15PHIS. Couturier0.14 xG
3rd 2:15MTLC. Caufield0.04 xG
3rd 10:09PHIT. Foerster0.74 xG
3rd 11:43PHIS. CouturierPP0.14 xG
3rd 13:34MTLC. Dvorak0.23 xG
3rd 13:52PHIM. Michkov0.09 xG
3rd 16:47MTLP. Laine0.47 xG

Team Stats

MTLPHI

30Shots on goal30

3.58Expected goals5.66

63Shot attempts64

235v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play1/4

20Hits16

11Blocked shots17

8Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways16

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.58 xGPHI 5.66 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL27 on goal, 4 scored

PHI30 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	22:26	3:57
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	20:57	3:56
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	1	7	0	+1	2	20:35	3:57
P. Laine	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	16:54	3:57
C. Dvorak	C	1	0	1	3	1	3	0	0	15:08	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	2	13:55	0:00
A. Newhook	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	13:15	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	12:21	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:10	0:03
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:14	0:03
J. Roy	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:06	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	8:01	0:03
L. Hutson	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	28:40	3:57
J. Struble	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	-1	2	18:57	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	0	14:25	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	25:45	0:03
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	18:21	0:04
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	30	24	6	.800	57:11	Loss
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Michkov	RW	2	1	3	6	0	0	+3	0	20:29	5:55
S. Couturier	C	2	1	3	5	3	0	+3	0	19:36	5:41
T. Foerster	RW	1	0	1	4	2	2	+1	0	22:28	5:28
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+2	2	21:34	5:55
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	18:38	5:55
J. Pelletier	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	10:58	0:00
O. Lycksell	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	9:13	1:11
R. Abols	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	8:38	0:07
N. Deslauriers	LW	1	0	1	1	1	2	-1	0	7:37	0:07
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	17:19	1:08
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	16:56	1:31
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	13:02	1:16
N. Seeler	D	0	1	1	1	5	2	+1	0	24:27	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+3	2	30:28	0:17
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	-2	0	21:47	1:11
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	18:20	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	12:52	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	30	26	4	.867	59:38	Win
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamChristian Dvorak PHI Faces MTL, his team until Apr 20251 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.2, PHI 3.1	MTL 4, PHI 6
Total goals	6.3	10
Shots on goal	MTL 24.8, PHI 28.9	MTL 30, PHI 30
Win chance	MTL 51%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	2.8	1	0.87	1	34%	1
PHI M. Michkov	2.5	6	0.77	3	25%	2
PHI T. Konecny	2.4	5	0.92	1	32%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.2	0	0.52	0	24%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.2	5	0.60	3	19%	2
MTL P. Laine	2.0	5	0.75	1	28%	1
PHI T. Foerster	2.0	4	0.55	1	26%	1
MTL N. Suzuki	1.9	3	1.01	1	29%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.8	2	0.61	0	13%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.8	1	0.52	0	21%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.7	1	0.68	1	22%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.7	1	0.45	1	19%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	1	0.46	0	10%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	0	0.52	1	19%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	2	0.44	1	18%	1
PHI R. Poehling	1.3	1	0.41	0	17%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	0	0.40	0	8%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	1	0.23	1	4%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.2	3	0.32	1	17%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.2	0	0.32	0	15%	0
PHI O. Lycksell	1.2	0	0.30	1	10%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.2	3	0.42	1	15%	1
PHI E. Andrae	1.2	2	0.20	0	4%	0
MTL J. Roy	1.1	1	0.32	0	14%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.1	1	0.82	2	8%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.1	1	0.25	1	12%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.1	2	0.36	0	6%	0
PHI J. Pelletier	1.1	2	0.31	1	11%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.9	1	0.28	1	6%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.9	0	0.15	0	5%	0
MTL E. Heineman	0.9	2	0.33	0	15%	0
MTL J. Evans	0.9	0	0.40	0	12%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.8	1	0.11	1	6%	1
PHI E. Zamula	0.7	0	0.30	0	6%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.6	2	0.25	1	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.