Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
MTL4
PIT2
MTL beat PIT 4-2, with the chances close: 2.87 expected goals to 3.36. PIT outshot MTL 38 to 29. B. Rust led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Kindel had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Fowler stopped 36 of 38.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 1st 2:54MTLA. Texier0.10 xG
- 2nd 4:37MTLB. Gallagher0.12 xG
- 2nd 10:18MTLC. CaufieldPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 0:44PITB. Rust0.23 xG
- 3rd 0:59MTLO. Kapanen0.12 xG
- 3rd 15:07PITE. KarlssonPP0.05 xG
Team Stats
MTLPIT
29Shots on goal38
2.87Expected goals3.36
60Shot attempts79
275v5 shots on goal15
1/4Power play1/6
12Hits25
24Blocked shots19
12Penalty minutes8
11Giveaways14
1Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.87 xGPIT 3.36 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:06 | 3:13 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:02 | 3:12 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:03 | 1:34 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:12 | 4:45 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:43 | 1:32 |
| A. Texier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:19 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:57 | 1:52 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:19 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:26 | 2:49 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| O. Beck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Davidson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:44 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 22:15 | 3:11 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 25:47 | 0:41 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 21:40 | 0:19 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +3 | 2 | 21:38 | 1:34 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| A. Engstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Fowler | 38 | 36 | 2 | .947 | 59:51 | Win |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:35 | 7:09 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:29 | 7:57 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 2:26 |
| B. Kindel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:24 | 7:01 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:36 | 7:05 |
| V. Koivunen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:25 | 2:40 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:53 | 2:43 |
| R. McGroarty | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:11 | 1:43 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:10 | 0:06 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27:22 | 7:06 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 21:59 | 3:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:00 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:21 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki13:56C. Caufield13:18Z. Bolduc13:37
Line 2J. Slafkovský13:08O. Kapanen12:05I. Demidov10:35
Line 3A. Texier10:03J. Anderson9:25O. Beck9:08
Line 4J. Veleno6:23J. Davidson5:44B. Gallagher6:47
Pair 2M. Matheson14:30A. Carrier14:52
Pair 3J. Struble13:05A. Engstrom11:21
PIT
Line 2D. Heinen9:45N. Acciari9:45C. Dewar9:40
Line 3R. McGroarty10:24B. Kindel9:54V. Koivunen10:03
Line 4K. Hayes8:45J. Brazeau8:08A. Mantha8:26
Pair 1C. Clifton13:06R. Graves12:59
Pair 2E. Karlsson13:21P. Wotherspoon15:25
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.8, PIT 3.1 | MTL 4, PIT 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 25.4, PIT 28.6 | MTL 29, PIT 38 |
| Win chance | PIT 55% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 4 | 0.85 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.7 | 7 | 1.19 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.7 | 5 | 0.89 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| PIT B. Kindel | 2.5 | 7 | 0.45 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.4 | 5 | 0.81 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 4 | 0.94 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.1 | 0 | 0.60 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 2.0 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.9 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 1.8 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.8 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT R. McGroarty | 1.7 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.7 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.5 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.74 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.68 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT J. Brazeau | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| PIT V. Koivunen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Davidson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT C. Clifton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL O. Beck | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.