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Game Recap
MTL3
FinalTue, Sep 29, 2026Every game that night
TOR2

MTL beat TOR 3-2, with the chances close: 3.14 expected goals to 2.55. W. Nylander led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Dobes stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MTL1113
TOR1012
  1. 1st 0:48TORW. Nylander0.06 xG
  2. 1st 10:53MTLJ. Anderson0.63 xG
  3. 2nd 4:52MTLZ. Bolduc0.15 xG
  4. 3rd 13:12MTLA. Carrier0.02 xG
  5. 3rd 15:46TORW. Nylander0.15 xG

Team Stats

MTLTOR
24Shots on goal28
3.14Expected goals2.55
53Shot attempts49
195v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play0/3
28Hits23
11Blocked shots14
8Penalty minutes8
20Giveaways21
7Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.14 xGTOR 2.55 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdTOR goal, 0:48MTL goal, 10:53MTL goal, 4:52MTL goal, 13:12TOR goal, 15:46

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL24 on goal, 3 scored
TOR27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. AndersonRW112340+2012:530:01
K. DachC011120+1011:070:00
Z. BolducRW101200+1011:041:28
N. SuzukiC000221-1018:432:21
J. SlafkovskýLW0002000017:532:26
A. NewhookC0001310216:111:24
C. CaufieldRW000330-1215:552:23
P. DanaultC000010+1015:370:03
I. DemidovRW000120-1215:112:23
J. EvansC000131+1014:500:00
C. KreiderLW0001300014:211:36
A. TexierLW0000210212:131:34
A. CarrierD112311+1021:540:00
M. MathesonD011302+1025:070:21
L. HutsonD0000010024:072:32
N. DobsonD0001020021:561:28
A. XhekajD0000010012:200:00
J. StrubleD0000200011:020:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Dobes28262.92959:36Win
S. Montembeault000–0:00

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
W. NylanderRW202501-1018:553:11
K. MarchenkoRW011420+1020:083:25
J. TavaresC0114120216:363:27
E. CowanRW011110+1015:582:12
A. MatthewsC000300-1022:344:04
J. RoslovicC0002100018:142:33
N. PaulLW000022-1215:322:34
G. McKennaLW000100-2015:192:33
C. SissonsC0000410014:580:00
T. BluegerC000110009:460:01
B. DuhaimeLW000051009:040:00
Z. MacEwenRW000000005:250:00
M. RiellyD011120-1021:301:36
D. RaddyshD000302-2023:474:20
T. StecherD000010+1019:050:00
C. TanevD0001030018:390:00
O. Ekman-LarssonD0001120218:070:00
J. McCabeD0001200211:380:04
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Bobrovsky24213.87558:45Loss
A. Stolarz000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki13:50C. Caufield12:29C. Kreider12:04
Line 2J. Slafkovský12:47I. Demidov11:36A. Newhook12:16
Line 3P. Danault12:36K. Dach11:06A. Texier10:20
Line 4J. Evans10:27Z. Bolduc9:24J. Anderson10:05
Pair 1A. Carrier17:02L. Hutson19:55
Pair 2M. Matheson18:14N. Dobson15:41
Pair 3A. Xhekaj10:51J. Struble11:02

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews15:27K. Marchenko14:49J. Roslovic14:54
Line 2J. Tavares11:30W. Nylander11:58G. McKenna12:40
Line 3C. Sissons12:50N. Paul11:18E. Cowan11:57
Line 4T. Blueger8:29B. Duhaime7:50Z. MacEwen5:25
Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson16:02T. Stecher16:50
Pair 2D. Raddysh16:53M. Rielly16:55
Pair 3C. Tanev15:49J. McCabe10:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 15 overs hit (33%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
TOR A. Matthews3.5-105-1103Under
MTL C. Caufield3.5+125-1453Under
TOR D. Raddysh2.5+115-1303Over
MTL J. Slafkovský2.5+122-1452Under
TOR J. Tavares2.5+140-1604Over
MTL N. Suzuki2.5+115-1442Under
TOR W. Nylander2.5+100-1205Over
MTL C. Kreider1.5-155+1251Under
TOR E. Cowan1.5+100-1351Under
MTL I. Demidov1.5-150+1301Under
TOR J. Roslovic1.5-145–2Over
MTL L. Hutson1.5-130+1100Under
MTL M. Matheson1.5+110-1503Over
TOR M. Rielly1.5+104-1351Under
MTL N. Dobson1.5-160+1261Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • HometownArber Xhekaj MTL Plays near home (born in Hamilton)0 SOG
  • HometownJake Evans MTL Plays in his hometown1 SOG
  • HometownJosh Anderson MTL Plays near home (born in Burlington)1 G, 1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 3.4, TOR 3.2MTL 3, TOR 2
Total goals6.65
Shots on goalMTL 28.2, TOR 27.2MTL 24, TOR 28
Win chanceMTL 52%MTL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
TOR A. Matthews3.630.95039%0
MTL C. Caufield3.130.91034%0
TOR D. Raddysh3.030.77017%0
TOR W. Nylander2.951.13238%2
TOR J. Tavares2.540.86133%0
MTL N. Suzuki2.521.13028%0
MTL J. Slafkovský2.420.79024%0
MTL I. Demidov2.010.74020%0
MTL N. Dobson2.010.53013%0
MTL A. Newhook2.010.58022%0
MTL C. Kreider1.810.61027%0
TOR J. Roslovic1.820.44019%0
TOR E. Cowan1.810.55119%0
TOR M. Rielly1.610.45110%0
MTL J. Anderson1.530.35217%1
MTL M. Matheson1.530.43111%0
MTL L. Hutson1.500.86012%0
TOR T. Blueger1.510.39013%0
MTL J. Evans1.410.48015%0
TOR N. Paul1.300.30015%0
MTL P. Danault1.300.43014%0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.310.3808%0
MTL A. Texier1.300.37014%0
TOR C. Sissons1.200.27011%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.220.36114%1
TOR T. Stecher1.100.1905%0
TOR J. McCabe1.010.3106%0
MTL K. Dach1.010.28111%0
TOR B. Duhaime0.900.1709%0
MTL A. Carrier0.930.3528%1
TOR Z. MacEwen0.800.1005%0
TOR C. Tanev0.610.2104%0
MTL J. Struble0.500.1604%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.400.0602%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.