Game Recap: MTL 3, VGK 2, December 31, 2024

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Game Recap

MTL3

FinalTue, Dec 31, 2024Every game that night

VGK2

MTL beat VGK 3-2, with the chances close: 2.20 expected goals to 2.61. T. Pearson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. S. Montembeault stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	0	1	2	3
VGK	2	0	0	2

1st 2:23VGKZ. Whitecloud0.17 xG
1st 19:48VGKN. Hanifin0.10 xG
2nd 17:27MTLC. Caufield0.12 xG
3rd 7:58MTLE. Heineman0.10 xG
3rd 10:09MTLK. Dach0.03 xG

Team Stats

MTLVGK

22Shots on goal29

2.20Expected goals2.61

49Shot attempts57

215v5 shots on goal24

0/0Power play0/1

39Hits22

11Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes0

14Giveaways22

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.20 xGVGK 2.61 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL21 on goal, 3 scored

VGK28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	18:19	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	1	1	3	4	3	0	0	16:24	0:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	15:36	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	15:12	0:00
K. Dach	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	-1	0	14:57	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	1	5	0	+1	0	10:35	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	15:52	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14:36	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	4	2	+1	0	14:28	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	14:06	0:00
P. Laine	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:03	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:34	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	15:40	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	24:20	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	23:08	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	21:27	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	21:23	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	14:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	29	27	2	.931	60:00	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	18:19	2:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	13:03	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	22:23	2:00
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:18	1:58
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	20:27	2:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	18:00	0:00
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	14:57	0:00
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:14	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	13:51	0:00
J. Rondbjerg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	9:38	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	9:17	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	8:28	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	24:11	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	19:28	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	23:24	0:02
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	19:23	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-3	17:39	2:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	13:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	22	19	3	.864	58:02	Loss
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.8, VGK 3.8	MTL 3, VGK 2
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	MTL 25.7, VGK 32.7	MTL 22, VGK 29
Win chance	VGK 66%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.6	5	1.29	0	37%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.7	4	0.66	1	28%	1
VGK W. Karlsson	2.4	0	0.80	0	28%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.4	1	0.56	0	28%	0
MTL P. Laine	2.1	0	0.60	0	24%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	1	1.10	0	32%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	2.1	3	0.65	0	30%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.0	2	0.65	1	25%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	2.0	2	0.63	0	10%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.9	2	0.79	0	10%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.8	2	0.60	1	12%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.8	0	0.55	0	10%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.7	0	0.70	1	23%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.6	2	0.37	0	16%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.5	1	0.35	0	16%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.4	1	0.51	1	16%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	1	0.46	0	22%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	3	0.31	1	16%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.3	3	0.36	1	13%	1
VGK K. Kolesar	1.3	1	0.42	1	18%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.3	1	0.33	0	5%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.2	4	0.36	0	14%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.2	0	0.37	0	16%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.2	0	0.28	0	13%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.2	1	0.18	0	5%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.2	0	0.35	0	13%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.1	2	0.19	0	5%	0
VGK J. Rondbjerg	1.1	0	0.18	0	8%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	1	0.27	0	6%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.0	2	0.54	0	5%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	1	0.27	0	4%	0
MTL E. Heineman	1.0	1	0.37	1	15%	1
MTL J. Evans	0.9	1	0.39	0	12%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	1	0.22	1	6%	1
VGK C. Schwindt	0.7	1	0.21	0	6%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.7	1	0.26	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.