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Game Recap
NJD2
FinalTue, Dec 31, 2024Every game that night
ANA3

ANA beat NJD 3-2, with the chances close: 2.85 expected goals to 3.15. NJD outshot ANA 34 to 26. R. Strome led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Hamilton had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. L. Dostal stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NJD0022
ANA1023
  1. 1st 10:05ANAT. Terry0.14 xG
  2. 3rd 3:57ANAR. Fabbri0.12 xG
  3. 3rd 5:31NJDJ. Siegenthaler0.01 xG
  4. 3rd 13:20NJDT. Meier0.07 xG
  5. 3rd 16:36ANAR. Strome0.02 xG

Team Stats

NJDANA
34Shots on goal26
3.15Expected goals2.85
75Shot attempts48
225v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play0/3
25Hits18
10Blocked shots21
12Penalty minutes10
7Giveaways17
6Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.15 xGANA 2.85 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdANA goal, 10:05ANA goal, 3:57NJD goal, 5:31NJD goal, 13:20ANA goal, 16:36

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD34 on goal, 2 scored
ANA25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. MeierRW1013400016:271:19
S. NoesenRW0111110015:572:05
J. HughesC000610-1021:512:30
J. BrattLW000001-1218:322:29
N. HischierC0003220617:562:31
D. MercerC0004200017:381:24
P. CotterLW0001400017:151:22
E. HaulaLW000110-1015:180:07
O. PalatLW000012-1014:481:23
C. LazarC000030+129:540:07
N. BastianRW000221009:260:07
K. MacDermidLW000010004:130:00
J. SiegenthalerD101110-1018:550:00
D. HamiltonD0116110018:522:27
L. HughesD000500-1021:001:33
B. PesceD000101-1020:370:07
B. DillonD000010+1217:220:04
J. KovacevicD0000010016:440:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Markstrom26233.88557:15Loss
J. Allen000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
F. VatranoRW022220+2020:463:57
R. StromeC112214+2019:053:53
T. TerryRW101402+2220:543:56
R. FabbriC1013010016:432:03
C. GauthierLW0111100214:451:09
L. CarlssonC000100-1015:083:43
M. McTavishC0002010214:392:04
A. KillornLW000020-1214:371:54
B. LeasonRW000111-1212:330:56
I. LundestromC0001100012:180:02
J. HarkinsC000000009:280:00
R. JohnstonLW000010006:510:00
J. LaCombeD0113020022:224:05
B. DumoulinD011021+1019:040:00
J. TroubaD000235+1022:120:02
R. GudasD0003220019:480:00
D. HellesonD0000220015:310:07
P. MintyukovD0001000015:162:09
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal34322.94160:00Win
J. Gibson000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNJD 3.5, ANA 2.8NJD 2, ANA 3
Total goals6.45
Shots on goalNJD 31.3, ANA 26.7NJD 34, ANA 26
Win chanceNJD 60%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.761.24038%0
ANA F. Vatrano3.020.61230%0
NJD T. Meier2.830.74131%1
NJD D. Hamilton2.660.62115%0
NJD N. Hischier2.630.95031%0
NJD J. Bratt2.401.08030%0
ANA T. Terry2.340.78129%1
NJD S. Noesen2.010.63125%0
ANA C. Gauthier1.910.47116%0
ANA M. McTavish1.820.58022%0
ANA R. Strome1.720.54219%1
ANA A. Killorn1.700.54023%0
ANA R. Fabbri1.630.54126%1
NJD L. Hughes1.650.57010%0
NJD B. Pesce1.510.2706%0
ANA J. Trouba1.520.2906%0
NJD D. Mercer1.540.51023%0
NJD E. Haula1.510.37016%0
ANA B. Leason1.410.33015%0
ANA L. Carlsson1.410.41018%0
NJD O. Palat1.300.48018%0
NJD P. Cotter1.210.36016%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.230.3518%0
NJD N. Bastian1.120.27012%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.110.3206%0
ANA D. Helleson1.000.3209%0
NJD J. Kovacevic1.000.2807%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler1.010.2114%1
ANA R. Gudas0.930.2204%0
ANA B. Dumoulin0.900.2214%0
NJD B. Dillon0.800.2906%0
NJD C. Lazar0.800.2309%0
ANA I. Lundestrom0.710.21011%0
ANA J. Harkins0.700.1607%0
ANA R. Johnston0.400.1104%0
NJD K. MacDermid0.300.0803%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.