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Game Recap
NJD1
FinalSun, Nov 2, 2025Every game that night
ANA4

ANA beat NJD 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.71 expected goals to 2.60. B. Sennecke led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Meier had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. L. Dostal stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NJD0011
ANA2114
  1. 1st 4:13ANAB. Sennecke0.21 xG
  2. 1st 14:24ANAF. Vatrano0.16 xG
  3. 2nd 1:54ANAC. Gauthier0.07 xG
  4. 3rd 7:43NJDJ. Hughes0.17 xG
  5. 3rd 18:06ANAC. KreiderEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

NJDANA
33Shots on goal29
2.60Expected goals4.71
70Shot attempts66
305v5 shots on goal25
0/1Power play0/2
15Hits18
19Blocked shots18
4Penalty minutes2
13Giveaways18
4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.60 xGANA 4.71 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdANA goal, 4:13ANA goal, 14:24ANA goal, 1:54NJD goal, 7:43ANA goal, 18:06

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD33 on goal, 1 scored
ANA29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. HughesC1012000024:070:52
T. MeierRW011730-3016:551:08
D. MercerC011100-2216:350:52
J. BrattLW000210-1019:540:52
N. HischierC000102-3017:220:52
A. GritsyukRW000400-1017:041:08
S. NoesenRW000112-1015:211:05
O. PalatLW0002300013:071:08
P. CotterLW0000100012:250:00
J. LammikkoC0001110011:220:00
L. GlendeningC000100009:040:00
B. HalonenLW000001007:320:00
D. HamiltonD000310+1021:530:52
L. HughesD000201-2220:571:08
B. DillonD000215-1020:170:00
J. SiegenthalerD000221-1019:430:00
D. CholowskiD000104-1017:190:03
S. NemecD000112-1016:410:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Allen28253.89358:22Loss
J. Markstrom000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. GauthierLW112110+2016:502:37
B. SenneckeRW112500+1215:381:30
L. CarlssonC011000+2016:362:30
R. PoehlingC011113+1016:190:00
C. KreiderLW101402+1014:392:36
F. VatranoRW101121+1012:320:00
A. KillornLW000201-1017:321:27
T. TerryRW000300+1016:132:33
N. NesterenkoC0000000015:240:00
M. McTavishC0002100015:051:24
R. JohnstonLW000131+1012:220:00
J. HarkinsC0002500011:140:00
J. TroubaD0112120022:211:17
J. LaCombeD011212+2022:132:43
P. MintyukovD0111020018:201:23
D. HellesonD000022+2020:490:00
O. ZellwegerD000112+1019:350:00
I. MooreD000100+1014:180:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal33321.97060:00Win
P. Mrazek000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Hughes20:34J. Bratt15:51S. Noesen13:39
Line 2T. Meier13:42D. Mercer13:41N. Hischier14:35
Line 3O. Palat11:00A. Gritsyuk15:20J. Lammikko10:55
Line 4P. Cotter12:25B. Halonen7:32L. Glendening7:27
Pair 1B. Dillon18:38L. Hughes18:17
Pair 2J. Siegenthaler17:17D. Hamilton17:33
Pair 3D. Cholowski17:16S. Nemec16:08

ANA

Line 1R. Poehling14:44N. Nesterenko14:23A. Killorn14:15
Line 2M. McTavish13:41B. Sennecke14:08C. Gauthier14:13
Line 3T. Terry11:52L. Carlsson12:04C. Kreider11:26
Line 4R. Johnston12:22J. Harkins11:14F. Vatrano12:32
Pair 1J. Trouba19:11O. Zellweger19:35
Pair 2J. LaCombe17:40D. Helleson19:02
Pair 3P. Mintyukov15:10I. Moore14:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNJD 3.1, ANA 3.2NJD 1, ANA 4
Total goals6.45
Shots on goalNJD 29.1, ANA 29.7NJD 33, ANA 29
Win chanceANA 53%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.721.07136%1
ANA C. Gauthier3.410.76229%1
NJD D. Hamilton3.130.66016%0
NJD T. Meier2.870.64129%0
NJD N. Hischier2.610.91032%0
ANA M. McTavish2.420.70026%0
ANA T. Terry2.430.80028%0
NJD J. Bratt2.320.90025%0
ANA C. Kreider2.240.66134%1
ANA L. Carlsson2.100.78126%0
ANA F. Vatrano2.010.43121%1
ANA O. Zellweger2.010.3308%0
NJD A. Gritsyuk1.940.36013%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.920.60113%0
NJD L. Hughes1.920.5307%0
NJD D. Mercer1.910.54125%0
ANA A. Killorn1.820.52023%0
ANA J. Trouba1.720.3417%0
ANA B. Sennecke1.650.46220%1
NJD S. Noesen1.610.38017%0
ANA N. Nesterenko1.500.36016%0
ANA D. Helleson1.400.3509%0
NJD S. Nemec1.210.2805%0
NJD P. Cotter1.200.27015%0
NJD O. Palat1.220.33014%0
ANA R. Poehling1.110.35114%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler1.020.1904%0
ANA I. Moore1.010.1603%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.010.3115%0
NJD J. Lammikko0.910.19010%0
NJD B. Dillon0.920.2705%0
ANA J. Harkins0.820.1307%0
NJD D. Cholowski0.810.2104%0
NJD L. Glendening0.710.1408%0
NJD B. Halonen0.700.1408%0
ANA R. Johnston0.410.1405%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.