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Game Recap
NJD3
OTT1
NJD beat OTT 3-1, with the chances close: 3.01 expected goals to 2.29. S. Noesen had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Markstrom stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| OTT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 2nd 2:39NJDE. Haula0.08 xG
- 2nd 6:26NJDN. BastianSH0.12 xG
- 3rd 12:39NJDP. Cotter0.42 xG
- 3rd 18:55OTTB. TkachukPP0.11 xG
Team Stats
NJDOTT
35Shots on goal31
3.01Expected goals2.29
69Shot attempts63
265v5 shots on goal28
0/2Power play1/3
22Hits27
11Blocked shots18
6Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways16
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 3.01 xGOTT 2.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:55 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| E. Haula | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:49 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 | 3:11 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 3:12 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 | 2:59 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:48 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 3:05 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:00 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:44 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:50 | 0:17 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 24:04 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:06 | 3:12 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 22:55 | 0:03 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| S. Casey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:45 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 | 3:33 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:45 | 3:37 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:23 | 3:35 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:12 | 3:04 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:37 | 2:08 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:35 | 3:04 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:28 | 1:49 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:12 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:12 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:15 | 2:01 |
| Z. MacEwen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:57 | 0:08 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:26 | 3:35 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 23:04 | 2:13 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:28 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:19 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 57:50 | Loss |
| M. Sogaard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 3.2, OTT 3.4 | NJD 3, OTT 1 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 28.0, OTT 31.4 | NJD 35, OTT 31 |
| Win chance | OTT 53% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 4.1 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.7 | 1 | 1.13 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.0 | 5 | 0.75 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.7 | 4 | 0.75 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.6 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.6 | 4 | 0.95 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.4 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.3 | 0 | 0.99 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 2.1 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.0 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.0 | 0 | 0.79 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.9 | 4 | 0.54 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 1.9 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 1.7 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.6 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.3 | 6 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.2 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.1 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD S. Casey | 0.9 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT Z. MacEwen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.