Game Recap: NJD 2, PHI 4, January 27, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD2

FinalMon, Jan 27, 2025Every game that night

PHI4

PHI beat NJD 4-2, with the chances close: 2.97 expected goals to 2.46. S. Laughton led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Bratt had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. S. Ersson stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	0	1	1	2
PHI	2	1	1	4

1st 11:04PHIB. BrinkPP0.06 xG
1st 11:32PHIJ. Farabee0.29 xG
2nd 2:49PHIG. Hathaway0.05 xG
2nd 18:47NJDD. Hamilton0.03 xG
3rd 18:38NJDT. Meier0.03 xG
3rd 19:45PHIS. LaughtonEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

NJDPHI

33Shots on goal26

2.46Expected goals2.97

71Shot attempts44

185v5 shots on goal21

0/3Power play1/2

20Hits25

12Blocked shots26

6Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways16

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.46 xGPHI 2.97 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD32 on goal, 2 scored

PHI26 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	0	1	1	6	0	1	+1	0	24:39	3:32
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	6	1	0	+1	0	21:04	2:59
T. Meier	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	-1	0	20:17	3:05
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-2	0	19:40	2:53
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	16:58	2:27
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:45	2:56
B. Halonen	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:13	2:59
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	16:04	2:58
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	12:04	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:26	0:09
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8:57	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:15	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	2	18:52	2:59
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	23:34	3:01
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	18:40	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:21	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	15:56	0:02
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	14:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	25	22	3	.880	56:21	Loss
I. Poulter	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	0	2	2	2	3	1	+1	0	23:43	1:18
S. Laughton	C	1	1	2	3	2	1	+1	0	16:10	0:00
J. Farabee	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	15:17	0:00
B. Brink	RW	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	0	12:49	1:16
G. Hathaway	RW	1	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	11:02	0:00
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	19:40	0:52
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:08	0:48
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	2	3	3	-2	0	16:43	1:14
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:50	1:17
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	9:45	0:49
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	7:20	0:00
A. Richard	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	6:39	0:49
R. Ristolainen	D	0	2	2	0	2	2	+2	4	20:15	1:35
C. York	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+2	0	21:12	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	25:10	0:01
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	2	18:55	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	18:27	0:31
E. Johnson	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	14:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	33	31	2	.939	60:00	Win
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.0, PHI 2.7	NJD 2, PHI 4
Total goals	5.7	6
Shots on goal	NJD 26.1, PHI 26.9	NJD 33, PHI 26
Win chance	NJD 54%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.4	6	1.15	1	36%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.7	3	0.75	1	32%	1
PHI O. Tippett	2.6	2	0.60	0	26%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.3	6	1.00	1	29%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.2	4	0.68	1	16%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.2	2	0.85	2	30%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.1	1	0.63	0	26%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.8	0	0.57	0	20%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.8	1	0.55	0	19%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.7	1	0.43	0	10%	0
PHI J. Farabee	1.6	1	0.40	1	17%	1
PHI T. Foerster	1.6	1	0.47	0	23%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.6	3	0.45	2	16%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.6	1	0.49	0	18%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.6	4	0.50	0	23%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.5	0	0.27	2	5%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.4	3	0.45	1	16%	1
NJD L. Hughes	1.4	1	0.56	0	9%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	3	0.31	1	8%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	1	0.45	0	18%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.2	1	0.27	0	6%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	2	0.29	0	5%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	1	0.21	0	4%	0
PHI A. Richard	1.1	1	0.44	0	16%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	1	0.31	0	15%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.1	3	0.25	1	12%	1
NJD N. Bastian	1.0	0	0.27	0	12%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	0	0.21	0	4%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.9	1	0.27	0	6%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.9	0	0.29	0	12%	0
PHI E. Johnson	0.8	1	0.14	0	5%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.8	0	0.24	0	9%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.7	1	0.20	0	11%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.6	1	0.26	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.