Game Recap: NJD 3, PIT 2 (SO), February 4, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD3

Final/SOTue, Feb 4, 2025Every game that night

PIT2

NJD beat PIT 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.73 expected goals to 2.44. J. Hughes led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Daws stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
NJD	1	1	0	1	3
PIT	0	1	1	0	2

1st 19:43NJDJ. Hughes0.39 xG
2nd 9:14NJDJ. Hughes0.16 xG
2nd 14:56PITR. Rakell0.21 xG
3rd 7:53PITK. Hayes0.14 xG

Team Stats

NJDPIT

21Shots on goal27

2.73Expected goals2.44

56Shot attempts58

115v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play0/3

21Hits19

10Blocked shots21

10Penalty minutes10

16Giveaways18

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.73 xGPIT 2.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD21 on goal, 2 scored

PIT27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	2	0	2	5	0	0	+2	0	25:51	2:08
J. Bratt	LW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+2	0	21:23	2:18
O. Palat	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	2	14:18	1:47
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	18:36	2:01
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	2	16:28	0:00
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:39	1:42
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:22	2:01
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	14:40	1:52
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:13	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	10:56	0:04
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:47	2:09
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	9:07	0:06
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	29:45	1:38
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	26:00	0:06
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	4	2	0	+2	0	22:46	2:20
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	2	20:05	0:08
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	19:37	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Daws	27	25	2	.926	64:15	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	4	3	2	0	0	22:14	3:28
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	4	2	3	0	0	21:45	2:59
K. Hayes	RW	1	0	1	2	4	1	+1	0	17:05	0:50
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	1	1	1	4	1	+1	0	15:04	0:04
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	23:13	2:45
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	2	16:53	0:04
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:14	2:49
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:48	1:01
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	11:37	0:32
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:25	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:18	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:25	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	-1	0	30:11	2:04
P. Joseph	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	4	17:49	0:04
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	24:32	2:21
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	23:17	1:15
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	14:01	0:04
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	13:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	21	19	2	.905	65:00	OT loss
J. Blomqvist	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCody Glass NJD Faces PIT, his team until Mar 20254 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.0, PIT 2.7	NJD 3, PIT 2
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	NJD 29.0, PIT 27.3	NJD 21, PIT 27
Win chance	NJD 54%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.8	5	1.17	2	36%	2
NJD T. Meier	3.0	3	0.78	0	31%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.8	4	1.08	1	34%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.8	4	0.64	0	15%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.7	4	0.76	1	30%	1
PIT B. Rust	2.5	2	0.77	0	30%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	2	0.69	1	13%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	2	1.01	2	27%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.1	1	0.53	0	12%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.1	1	0.57	0	23%	0
PIT M. Bunting	2.0	0	0.61	0	24%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.9	1	0.36	1	17%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.8	2	0.40	1	17%	1
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	1	0.53	0	24%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.7	1	0.51	0	9%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.6	4	0.37	0	14%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.6	3	0.36	0	15%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.5	0	0.42	0	15%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.5	0	0.26	0	6%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.4	1	0.46	1	18%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.3	0	0.36	0	17%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.2	2	0.37	0	4%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.1	2	0.38	0	17%	0
NJD N. Bastian	1.1	0	0.28	0	12%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.1	0	0.19	0	4%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	1	0.29	0	13%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.0	0	0.32	0	13%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
PIT P. Joseph	1.0	2	0.18	1	4%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	0	0.17	0	11%	0
NJD C. Lazar	1.0	0	0.26	0	9%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.9	0	0.15	0	4%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.25	0	5%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.8	0	0.23	0	11%	0
PIT V. Desharnais	0.6	0	0.12	0	2%	0
PIT B. Imama	0.4	0	0.08	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.