PIT beat NJD 7-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.90 expected goals to 2.73. J. Bratt led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). T. Meier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. T. Jarry stopped 24 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| PIT | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
- 1st 10:08NJDC. Glass0.14 xG
- 1st 17:11PITC. Dewar0.34 xG
- 1st 17:36PITD. Heinen0.25 xG
- 2nd 4:24PITR. Rakell0.15 xG
- 3rd 2:22PITP. Tomasino0.17 xG
- 3rd 5:40NJDT. MeierPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 6:40NJDN. HischierPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 14:17PITE. KarlssonPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 19:05PITC. DewarEN0.90 xG
- 3rd 19:38PITK. Hayes0.08 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 2.73 xGPIT 3.90 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:53 | 6:10 |
| N. Hischier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:46 | 6:17 |
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:21 | 6:18 |
| C. Glass | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:20 | 3:05 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:17 | 5:54 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:22 | 2:39 |
| D. Sprong | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 3:01 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:13 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 10:50 | 2:54 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:03 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 26:31 | 5:58 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:56 | 3:15 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 18:08 | 0:03 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:10 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 23 | 17 | 6 | .739 | 58:01 | Loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Dewar | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:12 | 1:57 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:31 | 3:55 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:16 | 2:57 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 17:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:20 | 0:00 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 | 16:19 | 3:03 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:13 | 2:45 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 | 2:37 |
| E. Bemstrom | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 5:13 | 0:00 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:14 | 3:15 |
| B. Imama | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:25 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:18 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:05 | 2:57 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:44 | 2:41 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:10 | 2:37 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:18 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 3.0, PIT 2.9 | NJD 3, PIT 7 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 27.6, PIT 27.6 | NJD 27, PIT 24 |
| Win chance | NJD 53% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD T. Meier | 2.8 | 6 | 0.76 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.6 | 1 | 1.03 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.4 | 5 | 0.79 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.4 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.4 | 3 | 0.91 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.4 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.2 | 3 | 1.03 | 3 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.2 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.9 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD D. Sprong | 1.8 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.8 | 1 | 0.71 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.7 | 1 | 0.63 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.7 | 3 | 0.46 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.6 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.2 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT E. Bemstrom | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 0.9 | 3 | 0.19 | 2 | 9% | 2 |
| PIT C. Timmins | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dumoulin | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT V. Kolyachonok | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT B. Imama | 0.3 | 1 | 0.06 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.