Game Recap: NJD 1, PIT 4, January 8, 2026

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Game Recap

NJD1

FinalThu, Jan 8, 2026Every game that night

PIT4

PIT beat NJD 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.47 expected goals to 2.49. E. Karlsson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Skinner stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	0	0	1	1
PIT	1	2	1	4

1st 6:39PITE. Karlsson0.03 xG
2nd 5:23PITC. Dewar0.15 xG
2nd 19:07PITE. MalkinPP0.13 xG
3rd 2:55NJDL. HughesPP0.04 xG
3rd 13:26PITB. Lizotte0.11 xG

Team Stats

NJDPIT

29Shots on goal29

2.49Expected goals3.47

57Shot attempts67

235v5 shots on goal23

1/2Power play1/3

25Hits10

19Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways22

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.49 xGPIT 3.47 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD29 on goal, 1 scored

PIT29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	17:14	2:00
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	20:47	2:40
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:16	2:36
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	17:37	1:28
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	4	1	2	-1	2	16:25	2:38
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	16:21	0:00
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	14:44	0:43
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	13:32	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	13:22	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:47	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	9:13	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	8:16	0:42
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	0	20:52	0:45
L. Hughes	D	1	0	1	1	2	2	-1	0	20:15	1:55
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:56	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	18:26	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	17:49	1:28
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	2	17:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	29	25	4	.862	59:57	Loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	0	2	2	4	0	0	+2	0	19:11	3:17
S. Crosby	C	0	2	2	1	2	1	+1	0	17:33	3:17
C. Dewar	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	2	11:43	0:00
E. Malkin	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	2	18:19	3:17
N. Acciari	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:36	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	+2	0	12:40	0:00
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	19:29	3:17
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:42	1:05
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:02	1:05
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:47	1:05
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:33	1:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:57	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	22:56	3:17
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	22:54	1:05
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+2	0	20:42	0:05
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	5	4	+1	0	20:04	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	14:56	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Bratt15:28N. Hischier15:46J. Hughes15:14

Line 2C. Brown14:50C. Glass13:29P. Cotter13:22

Line 3D. Mercer14:45A. Gritsyuk13:58T. Meier13:44

Line 4O. Palat9:13L. Glendening8:59S. Noesen7:31

Pair 1D. Hamilton18:06J. Siegenthaler20:36

Pair 2B. Dillon16:11S. Nemec16:21

Pair 3B. Pesce15:51L. Hughes17:36

PIT

Line 1B. Rust14:44R. Rakell15:12S. Crosby14:16

Line 2E. Malkin14:59B. Kindel16:34E. Chinakhov13:57

Line 3T. Novak10:57J. Brazeau11:39A. Mantha10:33

Line 4N. Acciari11:19B. Lizotte11:14C. Dewar10:58

Pair 1K. Letang21:24B. Kulak20:12

Pair 2P. Wotherspoon18:37E. Karlsson18:11

Pair 3R. Shea13:16J. Ivany12:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCody Glass NJD Faces PIT, his team until Mar 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.0, PIT 3.3	NJD 1, PIT 4
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	NJD 27.7, PIT 30.0	NJD 29, PIT 29
Win chance	PIT 56%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	3	1.17	1	38%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.1	4	0.68	0	30%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.7	2	0.86	0	32%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.7	4	0.79	2	30%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.7	2	0.51	1	14%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.6	3	0.88	0	31%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.6	1	1.09	2	36%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.5	2	0.94	0	26%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	2	0.71	2	13%	1
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.1	2	0.45	0	18%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.1	4	0.77	1	25%	1
NJD L. Hughes	2.0	1	0.59	1	10%	1
PIT K. Letang	1.9	1	0.45	1	9%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	3	0.49	0	22%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.8	2	0.37	0	15%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.7	1	0.61	0	24%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	1	0.49	0	20%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.5	3	0.46	0	12%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.5	2	0.33	0	14%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	1	0.44	0	16%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	1	0.31	2	13%	1
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.5	1	0.33	0	15%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.5	0	0.38	0	17%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.4	1	0.44	0	20%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.3	0	0.27	0	5%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.3	2	0.22	0	5%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	2	0.22	1	12%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	1	0.34	1	15%	1
NJD O. Palat	1.0	0	0.29	0	13%	0
PIT J. Ivany	1.0	0	0.16	0	2%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	0	0.25	0	3%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	1	0.16	0	3%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.9	1	0.24	0	12%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	3	0.24	0	5%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.6	1	0.20	0	4%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	0	0.11	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.