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Game Recap
NJD5
TBL3
NJD beat TBL 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.53 expected goals to 1.80. NJD outshot TBL 31 to 17. C. Brown led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Hughes had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.6. J. Markstrom stopped 14 of 17.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| TBL | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 8:30NJDT. Meier0.29 xG
- 1st 10:17NJDC. Brown0.06 xG
- 1st 13:48NJDN. Hischier0.22 xG
- 2nd 7:31TBLY. Gourde0.14 xG
- 2nd 17:23TBLR. McDonagh0.06 xG
- 3rd 4:48NJDJ. BrattSH0.23 xG
- 3rd 6:29NJDC. Brown0.06 xG
- 3rd 16:17TBLD. Raddysh0.07 xG
Team Stats
NJDTBL
31Shots on goal17
3.53Expected goals1.80
62Shot attempts54
245v5 shots on goal12
0/4Power play0/3
27Hits25
24Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes8
14Giveaways16
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 3.53 xGTBL 1.80 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hischier | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:59 | 5:03 |
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:14 | 4:05 |
| C. Brown | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| A. Gritsyuk | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:14 | 2:12 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 19:08 | 4:18 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:06 | 4:40 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 | 5:09 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:29 | 2:55 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:01 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:57 | 2:46 |
| Z. MacEwen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:12 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 20:32 | 5:23 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:18 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:30 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 | 0:03 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:51 | 3:07 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 17 | 14 | 3 | .824 | 59:48 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:07 | 4:56 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:10 | 0:53 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:16 | 2:51 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:34 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:31 | 4:50 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:45 | 2:43 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:32 | 5:13 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:28 | 1:09 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:07 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:38 | 3:21 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 27:17 | 4:17 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 17:13 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 31 | 26 | 5 | .839 | 56:43 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NJD
Line 1T. Meier12:03D. Mercer11:39N. Hischier11:06
Line 2L. Glendening11:09P. Cotter12:57Z. MacEwen7:12
Line 4A. Gritsyuk11:02C. Glass9:07C. Brown12:20
Pair 1D. Hamilton14:27J. Siegenthaler15:30
TBL
Line 1N. Kucherov13:51B. Point13:35B. Hagel13:00
Line 2J. Guentzel15:24A. Cirelli12:46Y. Gourde12:23
Line 3P. Holmberg8:40J. Finley8:39M. Chaffee7:19
Line 4O. Bjorkstrand9:13C. Geekie8:46G. Goncalves9:47
Pair 1R. McDonagh14:58E. Cernak13:12
Pair 2D. Raddysh13:21V. Hedman18:37
Pair 3M. Crozier15:14E. Lilleberg13:50
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 2.7, TBL 3.4 | NJD 5, TBL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 25.7, TBL 27.8 | NJD 31, TBL 17 |
| Win chance | TBL 61% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.6 | 7 | 0.97 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.5 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.1 | 1 | 1.47 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.0 | 4 | 1.03 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 3.0 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.6 | 3 | 0.95 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.6 | 3 | 0.85 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.5 | 0 | 1.02 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.3 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.1 | 0 | 0.80 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.9 | 0 | 0.48 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.6 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD C. Brown | 1.5 | 3 | 0.35 | 2 | 13% | 2 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 2 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.3 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD Z. MacEwen | 0.8 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NJD L. Glendening | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.