Game Recap: NJD 3, TOR 4 (OT), January 16, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD3

Final/OTThu, Jan 16, 2025Every game that night

TOR4

TOR beat NJD 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.50 expected goals to 2.99. TOR outshot NJD 41 to 24. W. Nylander led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Rielly had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Woll stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NJD	1	1	1	0	3
TOR	0	1	2	1	4

1st 2:21NJDJ. Hughes0.19 xG
2nd 6:14TORW. Nylander0.16 xG
2nd 8:14NJDN. HischierPP0.07 xG
3rd 7:43TORA. MatthewsPP0.28 xG
3rd 9:44NJDN. HischierPP0.44 xG
3rd 15:47TORA. Matthews0.05 xG
OT 1:10TORW. Nylander0.14 xG

Team Stats

NJDTOR

24Shots on goal41

2.99Expected goals2.50

52Shot attempts75

145v5 shots on goal38

2/3Power play1/2

14Hits25

21Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways17

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.99 xGTOR 2.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD24 on goal, 3 scored

TOR40 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	1	2	3	5	0	0	+1	0	22:07	2:39
N. Hischier	C	2	0	2	5	0	1	-2	0	21:09	2:19
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	3	2	4	-2	0	19:31	0:39
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	19:30	2:19
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	23:05	1:49
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	18:15	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	13:09	0:20
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:23	0:08
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	10:31	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	10:04	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:21	0:00
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4:58	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	21:15	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:28	0:11
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	22:16	0:20
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	20:59	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	17:50	2:31
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	14:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	41	37	4	.902	61:10	OT loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	2	1	3	4	1	0	+2	0	21:03	0:42
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	1	4	0	+2	2	21:36	0:42
A. Matthews	C	2	0	2	5	0	1	+1	0	21:14	0:42
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	20:03	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	19:51	0:42
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	3	4	1	+1	0	21:30	0:42
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:20	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:01	0:00
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:32	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	5:37	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	5:34	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	4:55	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	2	2	5	2	5	+3	0	24:16	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	20:18	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	7	0	3	-1	0	24:14	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	4	21:38	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	15:49	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	24	21	3	.875	61:10	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDougie Hamilton NJD Plays in his hometown0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.0, TOR 3.1	NJD 3, TOR 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	NJD 29.2, TOR 27.2	NJD 24, TOR 41
Win chance	TOR 51%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	4.0	5	1.15	3	36%	1
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	5	1.03	2	44%	2
TOR W. Nylander	3.0	4	0.95	3	37%	2
NJD T. Meier	3.0	3	0.72	1	31%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.7	5	0.87	2	30%	2
NJD J. Bratt	2.5	1	1.00	1	29%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.4	0	0.56	0	12%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.3	1	0.46	1	25%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.1	1	1.14	2	30%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	1.8	2	0.48	0	19%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	7	0.60	0	9%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.7	3	0.58	0	25%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.6	5	0.38	0	7%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	2	0.37	0	18%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.6	0	0.50	1	14%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.5	2	0.50	0	8%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.5	1	0.43	0	20%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.5	0	0.21	0	5%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.4	1	0.45	0	18%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	2	0.25	0	5%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.2	0	0.33	0	16%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	3	0.29	0	4%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	0	0.19	0	3%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.9	2	0.24	1	5%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	5	0.29	2	6%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.9	1	0.22	0	9%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.9	0	0.26	0	11%	0
NJD N. Bastian	0.9	1	0.21	0	9%	0
TOR C. Dewar	0.9	1	0.18	0	8%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	0	0.19	0	10%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	0.8	1	0.26	0	12%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.8	0	0.18	0	11%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.7	0	0.17	0	7%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.25	1	3%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NJD K. MacDermid	0.3	0	0.06	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.