Game Recap: NJD 0, TOR 4, December 30, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD0

FinalTue, Dec 30, 2025Every game that night

TOR4

TOR beat NJD 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.36 expected goals to 3.11. B. McMann led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. McMann had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Woll stopped 33 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	0	0	0	0
TOR	1	1	2	4

1st 14:21TORB. McMannPP0.12 xG
2nd 14:24TORN. Roy0.12 xG
3rd 6:35TORC. Jarnkrok0.15 xG
3rd 17:01TORM. KniesEN0.89 xG

Team Stats

NJDTOR

33Shots on goal30

3.11Expected goals4.36

65Shot attempts54

245v5 shots on goal16

0/3Power play1/3

18Hits18

11Blocked shots16

11Penalty minutes11

15Giveaways9

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.11 xGTOR 4.36 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD32 on goal, 0 scored

TOR30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	2	0	0	-1	0	24:26	6:00
J. Bratt	LW	4	1	1	-1	0	19:11	5:35
N. Hischier	C	4	0	0	-2	5	19:06	5:38
D. Mercer	C	2	1	0	-2	0	18:30	1:32
T. Meier	RW	3	0	0	-1	0	15:23	1:17
C. Glass	C	1	2	0	-1	2	14:28	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	-1	0	14:23	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	2	0	1	0	2	14:11	4:38
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	3	0	-2	2	13:30	0:13
L. Glendening	C	2	4	2	0	0	11:06	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	4	2	0	0	10:23	0:00
O. Palat	LW	3	2	1	0	0	10:08	0:00
L. Hughes	D	3	0	0	0	0	25:09	5:37
B. Pesce	D	2	0	1	-1	0	20:47	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	1	-1	0	18:23	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	3	0	0	-2	0	17:32	0:25
J. Siegenthaler	D	1	0	0	-1	0	15:36	0:00
C. White	D	1	1	2	0	0	14:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	29	26	3	.897	57:27	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Roy	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	18:04	2:04
N. Robertson	LW	0	2	2	3	1	0	+1	0	14:22	1:58
B. McMann	C	1	1	2	6	1	0	+1	0	14:16	1:48
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	2	19:35	3:38
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	3	3	1	+1	7	15:58	3:48
S. Lorentz	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	14:14	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:18	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	18:08	3:41
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:03	0:00
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:28	1:47
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:45	3:51
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	7:01	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	0	8	+2	0	23:46	0:09
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	21:02	3:50
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:12	1:51
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	17:27	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	0	17:24	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	15:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	33	33	0	1.000	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1T. Meier12:28D. Mercer13:25N. Hischier9:52

Line 2J. Bratt11:18J. Hughes16:48O. Palat9:14

Line 3C. Glass14:12A. Gritsyuk13:01C. Brown11:53

Line 4S. Noesen9:25P. Cotter10:23L. Glendening8:32

Pair 1B. Pesce17:12L. Hughes18:51

Pair 2B. Dillon14:57C. White14:40

Pair 3J. Siegenthaler13:23D. Hamilton13:51

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares14:20M. Domi13:31M. Knies10:32

Line 2N. Roy12:53N. Robertson12:24E. Cowan12:41

Line 3S. Laughton13:30B. McMann12:28M. Maccelli9:54

Line 4C. Jarnkrok10:17S. Lorentz10:13J. Quillan7:01

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson16:06J. McCabe17:49

Pair 2P. Myers16:28M. Rielly16:11

Pair 3S. Benoit15:08T. Stecher11:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDougie Hamilton NJD Plays in his hometown3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.0, TOR 3.2	NJD 0, TOR 4
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	NJD 29.7, TOR 27.7	NJD 33, TOR 30
Win chance	TOR 54%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	2	1.09	0	36%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.3	3	0.70	0	30%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.7	3	0.54	0	16%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.6	4	0.84	0	29%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	2	0.84	1	32%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	4	0.85	0	23%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.3	0	0.44	0	17%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.2	3	0.64	0	11%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.1	6	0.46	2	23%	1
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	2	0.47	0	21%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	3	0.71	1	25%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	0	0.66	0	11%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.8	1	0.37	0	15%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.8	0	0.48	0	18%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	3	0.40	2	19%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.6	3	0.56	0	15%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	3	0.43	0	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	1	0.43	0	8%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.5	2	0.37	0	16%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	1	0.55	0	17%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	2	0.29	0	6%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	2	0.32	0	14%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	3	0.33	0	14%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.2	2	0.42	2	16%	1
TOR P. Myers	1.1	2	0.14	0	4%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	0	0.27	1	12%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.0	0	0.25	0	13%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	1	0.15	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.39	0	6%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.0	1	0.28	1	13%	1
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.12	0	2%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.23	0	5%	0
NJD C. White	0.6	1	0.15	0	1%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.5	2	0.10	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.