Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
NJD3
UTA1
NJD beat UTA 3-1, with the chances close: 2.28 expected goals to 2.18. N. Daws stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| UTA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 9:34NJDN. Hischier0.08 xG
- 2nd 10:03UTAM. Sergachev0.09 xG
- 3rd 0:14NJDT. Meier0.08 xG
- 3rd 12:44NJDC. Lazar0.08 xG
Team Stats
NJDUTA
29Shots on goal25
2.28Expected goals2.18
59Shot attempts62
275v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play0/2
18Hits18
12Blocked shots20
9Penalty minutes9
10Giveaways16
3Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 2.28 xGUTA 2.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hischier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:40 | 1:56 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:31 | 2:28 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:23 | 1:29 |
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:45 | 2:06 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:49 | 0:17 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 | 2:12 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 1:28 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 1:32 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 1:55 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:42 | 1:28 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:19 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:45 | 0:18 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:52 | 1:58 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 16:41 | 0:00 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:34 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7:25 | 0:00 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 | 2:44 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:02 | 2:52 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:43 | 2:56 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:30 | 2:36 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:08 | 2:56 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:52 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:52 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:11 | 1:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:17 | 2:52 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:56 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:12 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:22 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 17:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 57:54 | Loss |
| C. Ingram | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 2.8, UTA 3.0 | NJD 3, UTA 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 26.4, UTA 28.4 | NJD 29, UTA 25 |
| Win chance | UTA 54% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.4 | 4 | 1.02 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.7 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.6 | 1 | 0.97 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.6 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.5 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.3 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.1 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.1 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.9 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.8 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.6 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.5 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.