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Game Recap
NJD0
FinalSun, Mar 2, 2025Every game that night
VGK2

VGK beat NJD 2-0, with the chances close: 2.99 expected goals to 2.26. N. Hanifin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Hanifin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. A. Hill stopped 25 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NJD0000
VGK0022
  1. 3rd 1:27VGKM. StonePP0.12 xG
  2. 3rd 9:10VGKN. HanifinPP0.09 xG

Team Stats

NJDVGK
25Shots on goal24
2.26Expected goals2.99
49Shot attempts56
205v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play2/4
23Hits20
12Blocked shots10
4Penalty minutes2
18Giveaways12
2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.26 xGVGK 2.99 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdVGK goal, 1:27VGK goal, 9:10

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD22 on goal, 0 scored
VGK24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. HughesC0003000221:542:00
N. HischierC0002010021:491:03
T. MeierRW0004210019:330:57
D. MercerC0000010016:510:57
J. BrattLW0001210015:321:03
O. PalatLW0000330213:550:57
P. CotterLW0001300012:320:00
S. NoesenRW0001300012:031:03
E. HaulaLW0000110011:400:00
N. BastianRW0000210011:350:00
C. LazarC0001310010:110:00
T. TatarLW000210009:320:00
L. HughesD0003010027:561:03
D. HamiltonD0004100023:470:57
J. KovacevicD0000010018:530:00
B. PesceD0003000018:490:00
B. DillonD0000200017:100:00
S. NemecD0000000011:510:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Markstrom24222.91760:00Loss
J. Allen000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. EichelC0224000019:192:50
M. StoneRW1012000019:452:50
T. HertlC0001200019:252:50
B. HowdenC0002010016:120:49
P. DorofeyevRW0001300015:121:51
K. KolesarRW0000200014:470:00
V. OlofssonLW0000000014:410:49
B. SaadLW0001100014:380:00
I. BarbashevLW0002200014:340:00
N. RoyC0000200011:350:49
T. PearsonLW0002100010:580:00
R. LavoieC000000029:090:00
N. HanifinD1126010022:503:39
A. PietrangeloD0001030022:171:48
N. HagueD0001010019:220:00
B. McNabbD0000230018:320:00
Z. WhitecloudD0001510018:240:00
K. KorczakD0000000016:540:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Hill252501.00059:26Win
I. Samsonov000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNJD 2.5, VGK 3.3NJD 0, VGK 2
Total goals5.82
Shots on goalNJD 24.4, VGK 30.2NJD 25, VGK 24
Win chanceVGK 64%VGK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.430.98033%0
VGK J. Eichel3.341.06233%0
VGK P. Dorofeyev2.810.60030%0
NJD T. Meier2.640.60026%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.440.53012%0
NJD N. Hischier2.320.77027%0
VGK T. Hertl2.210.65026%0
NJD J. Bratt2.010.82023%0
VGK M. Stone2.020.90128%1
VGK A. Pietrangelo1.910.4708%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.960.47210%1
NJD S. Noesen1.710.44019%0
VGK B. Saad1.710.45022%0
VGK V. Olofsson1.600.44022%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.620.64024%0
NJD D. Mercer1.600.42020%0
NJD L. Hughes1.530.4508%0
NJD E. Haula1.500.29013%0
VGK B. Howden1.420.39018%0
VGK N. Hague1.410.2005%0
NJD O. Palat1.200.37015%0
VGK N. Roy1.200.40015%0
NJD B. Pesce1.230.2204%0
VGK B. McNabb1.200.2605%0
VGK T. Pearson1.220.27012%0
VGK R. Lavoie1.100.1209%0
NJD P. Cotter1.110.28014%0
VGK K. Kolesar1.100.34014%0
VGK Z. Whitecloud1.010.2307%0
NJD T. Tatar1.020.29012%0
VGK K. Korczak1.000.2303%0
NJD N. Bastian1.000.22010%0
NJD J. Kovacevic0.900.1904%0
NJD C. Lazar0.810.1908%0
NJD S. Nemec0.800.1703%0
NJD B. Dillon0.700.2104%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.