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Game Recap
NJD5
FinalFri, Oct 30, 2026Every game that night
VGK2

NJD beat VGK 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.68 expected goals to 1.89. NJD outshot VGK 32 to 21. A. Gritsyuk led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Gritsyuk had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. C. Hellebuyck stopped 19 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NJD2215
VGK2002
  1. 1st 5:38NJDL. Hughes0.03 xG
  2. 1st 16:27VGKM. StonePP0.11 xG
  3. 1st 17:57VGKI. Barbashev0.15 xG
  4. 1st 18:51NJDA. Gritsyuk0.12 xG
  5. 2nd 3:49NJDJ. Hughes0.19 xG
  6. 2nd 18:16NJDA. Gritsyuk0.03 xG
  7. 3rd 17:09NJDJ. HughesEN0.32 xG

Team Stats

NJDVGK
32Shots on goal21
2.68Expected goals1.89
63Shot attempts38
265v5 shots on goal17
0/2Power play1/1
13Hits36
5Blocked shots15
2Penalty minutes4
9Giveaways13
7Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.68 xGVGK 1.89 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdNJD goal, 5:38VGK goal, 16:27VGK goal, 17:57NJD goal, 18:51NJD goal, 3:49NJD goal, 18:16NJD goal, 17:09

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD32 on goal, 5 scored
VGK20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. GritsyukRW202810+3017:481:31
J. HughesC202700+4017:202:28
J. BrattLW011020+4015:352:12
A. ManthaRW011100+1013:581:26
L. EvangelistaRW000330-1218:402:28
N. HischierC000110-1018:122:28
T. MeierRW0002110017:271:26
E. RodriguesC0000000016:221:26
J. BoqvistC0001200013:590:00
C. GlassC000110+1012:130:06
A. LombardiC0001000011:350:06
C. BrownRW000001+1010:140:06
L. HughesD101200+3023:392:34
J. SiegenthalerD011013-1020:450:11
B. PesceD000100+3021:520:06
D. HamiltonD000200-1017:541:26
J. KovacevicD000210+2016:330:00
D. ChisholmD000000+2015:480:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hellebuyck21192.90560:00Win
J. Allen000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. MarnerRW022101-1217:420:06
M. StoneRW101141-2016:170:06
I. BarbashevLW101330-1015:200:00
T. ConnellyLW000210-2016:570:06
W. KarlssonC000110-2016:540:00
J. EichelC000011-1016:210:06
T. HertlC000250-2015:440:06
B. HowdenC000001-1014:320:00
B. BowmanRW000100-2013:210:00
N. DowdC0000500012:230:00
J. RondbjergRW0000000012:220:00
M. GatcombC0000700011:010:00
B. McNabbD011031+1018:340:00
R. AnderssonD000203-2024:290:00
N. HanifinD000414-2224:000:00
S. TheodoreD000301-1021:140:00
J. LauzonD000152-2018:110:00
V. HeinolaD000000-1012:260:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Hill31274.87158:12Loss
C. Hart000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Hughes14:43A. Gritsyuk16:17J. Bratt13:16
Line 2T. Meier14:32N. Hischier14:24L. Evangelista15:57
Line 3E. Rodrigues13:27J. Boqvist13:43A. Mantha12:13
Line 4C. Glass12:01A. Lombardi11:29C. Brown10:02
Pair 1B. Pesce21:37L. Hughes20:56
Pair 2D. Hamilton15:06J. Siegenthaler19:12
Pair 3J. Kovacevic16:10D. Chisholm15:25

VGK

Line 1M. Marner15:17T. Connelly15:03W. Karlsson15:19
Line 2M. Stone13:36I. Barbashev15:20J. Eichel12:53
Line 3T. Hertl14:07B. Bowman13:15B. Howden13:11
Line 4N. Dowd11:42M. Gatcomb11:01J. Rondbjerg11:04
Pair 1B. McNabb16:02S. Theodore17:19
Pair 2N. Hanifin23:24J. Lauzon16:17
Pair 3R. Andersson23:14V. Heinola12:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 22 overs hit (45%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NJD J. Hughes3.5+110-1207Over
VGK J. Eichel2.5-115-1050Under
NJD L. Evangelista2.5+138-1553Over
NJD L. Hughes2.5+140-1822Under
VGK M. Marner2.5+140-1601Under
NJD N. Hischier2.5+136-1501Under
NJD T. Meier2.5-128+1102Under
NJD A. Gritsyuk1.5-160+1408Over
VGK B. Howden1.5+120-1550Under
VGK B. McNabb1.5+160-2200Under
NJD D. Hamilton1.5-168+1352Over
NJD E. Rodrigues1.5-115+1000Under
VGK I. Barbashev1.5+125-1303Over
NJD J. Bratt1.5-140+1350Under
VGK J. Lauzon1.5+140-1901Under
VGK M. Stone1.5-154+1201Under
VGK N. Hanifin1.5+130-1704Over
VGK R. Andersson1.5+115-1502Over
VGK S. Theodore1.5-120+1003Over
VGK T. Connelly1.5-130+1052Over
VGK T. Hertl1.5-170+1352Over
VGK W. Karlsson1.5-135+1101Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNJD 2.9, VGK 3.2NJD 5, VGK 2
Total goals6.17
Shots on goalNJD 27.4, VGK 27.4NJD 32, VGK 21
Win chanceVGK 54%NJD won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes2.870.91229%2
NJD T. Meier2.820.50024%0
VGK J. Eichel2.601.04029%0
NJD L. Evangelista2.130.61018%0
VGK M. Marner2.111.00227%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.020.42010%0
NJD N. Hischier2.010.65026%0
NJD L. Hughes2.020.53110%1
VGK T. Hertl2.020.59023%0
VGK M. Stone1.910.89129%1
NJD A. Gritsyuk1.980.44217%2
VGK W. Karlsson1.810.57022%0
NJD J. Bratt1.800.74121%0
VGK S. Theodore1.830.59011%0
NJD E. Rodrigues1.700.40015%0
VGK T. Connelly1.720.55019%0
NJD A. Lombardi1.610.2709%0
VGK B. Howden1.500.50024%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.530.60121%1
VGK R. Andersson1.420.3408%0
NJD A. Mantha1.410.48120%0
VGK M. Gatcomb1.400.20011%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.440.3707%0
VGK B. Bowman1.310.40014%0
NJD C. Glass1.210.27013%0
VGK B. McNabb1.200.3315%0
NJD C. Brown1.200.36014%0
VGK J. Rondbjerg1.100.1607%0
VGK J. Lauzon1.110.1503%0
NJD B. Pesce1.110.2305%0
VGK V. Heinola1.000.1903%0
NJD J. Boqvist1.010.26012%0
VGK N. Dowd0.700.22010%0
NJD J. Kovacevic0.720.1703%0
NJD D. Chisholm0.700.1704%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.700.1913%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.