Game Recap: NJD 5, WSH 3, October 12, 2024

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Game Recap

NJD5

FinalSat, Oct 12, 2024Every game that night

WSH3

NJD beat WSH 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.12 expected goals to 2.82. E. Haula led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). T. Tatar had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Markstrom stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	2	2	1	5
WSH	1	1	1	3

1st 10:48WSHJ. CarlsonPP0.06 xG
1st 13:42NJDS. Casey0.08 xG
1st 16:24NJDP. Cotter0.22 xG
2nd 0:32WSHD. Strome0.36 xG
2nd 3:56NJDT. Tatar0.62 xG
2nd 13:38NJDP. Cotter0.16 xG
3rd 1:35WSHT. Wilson0.17 xG
3rd 19:52NJDD. MercerEN0.86 xG

Team Stats

NJDWSH

33Shots on goal32

4.12Expected goals2.82

59Shot attempts56

245v5 shots on goal25

0/4Power play1/3

19Hits21

15Blocked shots18

8Penalty minutes10

16Giveaways17

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 4.12 xGWSH 2.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD33 on goal, 5 scored

WSH32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Haula	LW	0	3	3	2	1	0	+2	0	17:15	3:28
S. Noesen	RW	0	3	3	1	1	0	+2	0	13:30	3:32
T. Tatar	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	0	13:57	2:42
P. Cotter	LW	2	0	2	4	2	1	+1	2	13:10	0:06
D. Mercer	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	19:55	3:36
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	18:40	3:34
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	14:37	3:45
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	2	14:27	3:55
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	17:13	4:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:12	0:14
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	13:04	0:09
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:18	0:16
S. Casey	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	9:45	2:12
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	23:15	0:04
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	22:43	0:55
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	+3	0	22:07	4:28
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	+3	0	21:36	0:19
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	14:35	1:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	32	29	3	.906	59:31	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Strome	C	1	1	2	4	0	2	0	0	20:21	3:14
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	1	1	0	7	0	0	0	19:44	3:46
T. Wilson	RW	1	0	1	5	2	3	-1	2	17:52	2:34
P. Dubois	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	2	17:29	3:17
C. McMichael	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	14:27	0:28
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:35	1:11
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	4	17:14	0:09
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:07	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:11	0:00
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	10:28	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	7:53	0:37
S. Milano	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	5:52	0:00
J. Carlson	D	1	1	2	4	3	2	0	0	24:55	2:43
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	2	22:09	1:10
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	20:59	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	19:22	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	19:03	0:06
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	8:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	32	28	4	.875	57:40	Loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.1, WSH 3.0	NJD 5, WSH 3
Total goals	6.1	8
Shots on goal	NJD 28.5, WSH 26.8	NJD 33, WSH 32
Win chance	NJD 51%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	4.3	2	1.19	0	37%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.7	0	0.87	1	35%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.3	0	0.88	1	38%	0
NJD J. Bratt	3.1	0	0.99	1	29%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	3.0	4	0.63	0	17%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.9	3	0.97	1	29%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.6	4	0.82	2	16%	1
WSH D. Strome	2.4	4	0.94	2	31%	1
WSH T. Wilson	2.4	5	0.60	1	27%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.4	2	0.49	0	12%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.9	2	0.47	3	18%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	3	0.42	1	21%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	1	0.54	1	24%	1
WSH P. Dubois	1.8	2	0.55	1	23%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.8	0	0.41	0	11%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.8	2	0.54	0	22%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.6	1	0.29	0	15%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.5	2	0.33	0	6%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.4	2	0.45	0	16%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.3	1	0.40	3	15%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.3	4	0.34	2	14%	2
WSH H. Lapierre	1.3	0	0.47	0	17%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.2	4	0.37	2	15%	1
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.2	2	0.31	0	8%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.1	1	0.20	0	4%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	1	0.39	0	7%	0
NJD B. Dillon	1.0	0	0.27	0	6%	0
WSH S. Milano	1.0	1	0.42	0	18%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	2	0.26	0	8%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.0	2	0.23	0	4%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	0	0.37	0	18%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.0	3	0.23	0	5%	0
NJD N. Bastian	1.0	2	0.23	0	10%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.9	1	0.22	0	8%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.9	1	0.14	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.