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Game Recap
NJD3
Final/SOSat, Nov 15, 2025Every game that night
WSH2

NJD beat WSH 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.22 expected goals to 3.15. C. McMichael led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Chychrun had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. J. Allen stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdSOT
NJD20013
WSH00202
  1. 1st 5:05NJDA. GritsyukPP0.10 xG
  2. 1st 17:46NJDL. Hughes0.07 xG
  3. 3rd 1:00WSHC. McMichael0.20 xG
  4. 3rd 8:29WSHA. Ovechkin0.20 xG

Team Stats

NJDWSH
31Shots on goal31
3.22Expected goals3.15
66Shot attempts69
205v5 shots on goal26
1/3Power play0/1
13Hits26
21Blocked shots16
2Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways11
4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.22 xGWSH 3.15 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTNJD goal, 5:05NJD goal, 17:46WSH goal, 1:00WSH goal, 8:29

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD31 on goal, 2 scored
WSH31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. BrattLW0114010022:004:22
A. GritsyukRW101202-1018:341:13
P. CotterLW011110-1016:581:16
T. MeierRW0005000024:224:25
N. HischierC0003010024:144:26
D. MercerC000210-1223:184:01
S. NoesenRW0001100014:101:41
O. PalatLW0002100013:531:20
J. LammikkoC0001020012:060:00
N. LégaréRW000021008:150:00
L. GlendeningC000002008:110:00
S. LachanceLW000010007:250:00
L. HughesD112312-1026:041:16
B. DillonD011121-1019:200:00
S. NemecD0002040026:024:26
J. SiegenthalerD0002210019:570:04
D. CholowskiD0001030014:420:00
C. WhiteD0001110013:290:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Allen31292.93565:00Win
J. Markstrom000–0:00

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McMichaelLW112401+1018:320:46
A. OvechkinLW112340+1017:381:48
D. StromeC011130+1019:481:14
A. ProtasLW0002100022:030:00
T. WilsonRW0004300220:451:08
N. DowdC0000300217:200:00
J. SourdifC0002100015:070:00
A. BeauvillierRW0002310213:580:52
B. DuhaimeLW0000000012:400:00
E. FrankRW0001110010:340:37
R. LeonardRW000020009:291:23
H. LapierreC000210008:040:00
J. ChychrunD0116120028:221:02
M. RoyD000202+1024:280:00
M. FehérváryD000212+1019:370:00
R. SandinD0000230018:390:58
T. van RiemsdykD0000020016:130:12
D. ChisholmD0000020015:530:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson31292.93565:00OT loss
C. Lindgren000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1T. Meier17:11N. Hischier17:12J. Bratt14:21
Line 2D. Mercer17:17A. Gritsyuk16:55P. Cotter14:47
Line 3O. Palat12:06J. Lammikko12:06S. Noesen11:44
Line 4L. Glendening7:25S. Lachance7:25N. Légaré8:15
Pair 1B. Dillon18:25L. Hughes20:56
Pair 2J. Siegenthaler18:44S. Nemec18:30
Pair 3C. White13:29D. Cholowski14:42

WSH

Line 1A. Protas18:10T. Wilson15:55J. Sourdif15:07
Line 2A. Ovechkin14:16D. Strome16:15C. McMichael13:24
Line 3N. Dowd13:57B. Duhaime11:11E. Frank9:57
Line 4A. Beauvillier12:33R. Leonard8:06H. Lapierre8:04
Pair 1M. Roy21:51J. Chychrun22:45
Pair 2T. Riemsdyk13:46M. Fehérváry16:19
Pair 3D. Chisholm15:04R. Sandin14:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNJD 2.9, WSH 3.3NJD 3, WSH 2
Total goals6.15
Shots on goalNJD 26.2, WSH 28.2NJD 31, WSH 31
Win chanceWSH 57%NJD won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD T. Meier3.050.70030%0
WSH A. Ovechkin2.930.88237%1
WSH J. Chychrun2.660.63118%0
NJD N. Hischier2.330.84030%0
NJD J. Bratt2.240.90125%0
WSH A. Beauvillier2.120.39017%0
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.020.39115%1
NJD L. Hughes2.030.5929%1
WSH T. Wilson2.040.71029%0
WSH D. Strome1.810.87127%0
WSH R. Leonard1.800.34014%0
NJD D. Mercer1.820.52024%0
WSH C. McMichael1.840.49221%1
WSH A. Protas1.720.61021%0
NJD S. Noesen1.410.34016%0
WSH M. Roy1.420.3205%0
NJD S. Nemec1.320.3509%0
NJD O. Palat1.120.32014%0
WSH R. Sandin1.100.3907%0
WSH M. Fehérváry1.020.3006%0
WSH N. Dowd1.000.30015%0
NJD P. Cotter0.910.22112%0
WSH E. Frank0.910.30012%0
WSH J. Sourdif0.920.19013%0
WSH D. Chisholm0.900.1604%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.920.1604%0
WSH B. Duhaime0.900.24012%0
WSH H. Lapierre0.820.2809%0
NJD J. Lammikko0.810.1608%0
WSH T. Riemsdyk0.700.2103%0
NJD B. Dillon0.710.2315%0
NJD D. Cholowski0.710.1704%0
NJD C. White0.610.1202%0
NJD L. Glendening0.500.1106%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.