PHI beat NSH 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.22 expected goals to 2.05. NSH outshot PHI 29 to 18. M. Michkov led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). K. Bellows had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. I. Fedotov stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| PHI | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 8:50PHIR. Poehling0.09 xG
- 2nd 13:14NSHZ. L'Heureux0.04 xG
- 2nd 13:48PHIJ. Drysdale0.15 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 2.05 xGPHI 3.22 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:00 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:25 | 1:10 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 1:12 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:03 | 1:12 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 | 1:10 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:50 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:50 |
| K. Bellows | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:44 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:48 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:53 | 0:34 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 | 1:26 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:04 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:00 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 58:22 | Loss |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:01 | 1:09 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:06 |
| R. Poehling | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:53 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:59 | 1:07 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:51 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:43 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 1:09 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:54 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| O. Lycksell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:51 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:47 | 1:17 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 26:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:30 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Fedotov | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Ersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 3.1, PHI 2.9 | NSH 1, PHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 26.3, PHI 27.7 | NSH 29, PHI 18 |
| Win chance | NSH 52% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 2.9 | 2 | 0.99 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.7 | 2 | 0.84 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.4 | 0 | 0.92 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.2 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.1 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.0 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 2.0 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.9 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.9 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.8 | 4 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.7 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.6 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.4 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH J. Vrana | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.3 | 4 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.2 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| NSH K. Bellows | 1.2 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI J. Pelletier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI O. Lycksell | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH J. Oesterle | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.6 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH A. Englund | 0.5 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.