Game Recap: NSH 0, PIT 4, November 16, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH0

FinalSun, Nov 16, 2025Every game that night

PIT4

PIT beat NSH 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.11 expected goals to 1.59. S. Murashov stopped 21 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	0	0	0
PIT	3	0	1	4

1st 2:19PITP. Wotherspoon0.01 xG
1st 8:08PITE. Malkin0.22 xG
1st 10:13PITS. Crosby0.05 xG
3rd 17:12PITB. LizotteEN0.47 xG

Team Stats

NSHPIT

21Shots on goal22

1.59Expected goals3.11

52Shot attempts47

155v5 shots on goal18

0/4Power play0/0

27Hits15

11Blocked shots14

0Penalty minutes6

20Giveaways9

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 1.59 xGPIT 3.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH21 on goal, 0 scored

PIT21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	6	0	-1	20:42	3:17
S. Stamkos	C	2	1	0	-2	19:59	4:30
L. Evangelista	RW	2	2	0	0	19:54	3:25
J. Marchessault	RW	3	1	1	-1	19:30	3:51
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	1	0	18:55	3:03
M. Bunting	LW	1	0	0	-2	18:34	4:15
E. Haula	LW	0	0	2	-1	16:37	2:52
M. Wood	RW	1	1	0	-2	15:16	3:42
M. McCarron	C	1	2	1	-1	15:02	0:08
O. Wiesblatt	C	1	4	0	-1	12:36	0:05
F. Svechkov	C	0	2	1	-2	10:34	0:08
B. Skjei	D	3	2	0	-2	19:34	3:41
N. Hague	D	1	2	0	-2	18:47	0:00
N. Perbix	D	2	3	0	-1	17:49	0:25
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	2	-2	17:23	3:46
S. Stastney	D	1	0	1	0	14:51	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	2	0	2	0	14:23	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	-1	10:12	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	21	18	3	.857	59:22	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:51	0:00
S. Crosby	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:31	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	14:12	0:00
A. Mantha	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:06	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	13:27	0:00
J. Koppanen	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+3	0	13:27	0:00
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	18:15	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:10	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:41	0:00
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:50	0:00
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:39	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	10:57	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	21:00	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	2	20:22	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+3	0	20:28	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	20:06	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+3	2	19:30	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	19:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Murashov	21	21	0	1.000	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly15:52L. Evangelista16:29F. Forsberg16:47

Line 2S. Stamkos14:58E. Haula13:14J. Marchessault15:08

Line 3M. McCarron14:47O. Wiesblatt12:24M. Bunting14:12

Line 4M. Wood11:34F. Svechkov10:26

Pair 1B. Skjei15:27N. Perbix17:17

Pair 2N. Hague18:47N. Blankenburg13:32

Pair 3S. Stastney14:39A. Wilsby13:57

PIT

Line 1B. Rust15:48S. Crosby15:31C. Dewar13:24

Line 2E. Malkin15:47A. Mantha13:59K. Hayes13:20

Line 3T. Novak13:41B. Kindel12:47P. Tomasino11:39

Line 4J. Koppanen9:31B. Lizotte9:35D. Heinen10:21

Pair 1C. Clifton19:14R. Graves18:45

Pair 2K. Letang16:27R. Shea17:08

Pair 3E. Karlsson16:26P. Wotherspoon16:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTommy Novak PIT Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.9, PIT 3.2	NSH 0, PIT 4
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	NSH 28.2, PIT 28.1	NSH 21, PIT 22
Win chance	PIT 55%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.2	1	0.93	0	35%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.7	0	0.96	0	32%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.7	2	1.21	1	36%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.5	3	0.73	0	30%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	0	0.85	1	18%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.3	2	0.55	0	18%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	2	0.75	0	32%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	2	0.93	1	26%	1
PIT B. Kindel	2.2	2	0.55	0	23%	0
NSH M. Wood	2.0	1	0.51	0	19%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	0	0.70	0	25%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	3	0.44	0	11%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.7	2	0.47	0	11%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.7	1	0.53	0	20%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	0	0.43	0	18%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.5	0	0.37	0	8%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	1	0.51	0	19%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.5	2	0.58	1	22%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	1	0.32	0	13%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.4	2	0.34	1	13%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.4	0	0.37	0	13%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.2	2	0.29	0	7%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.2	1	0.21	0	5%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.1	1	0.40	0	15%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.1	1	0.25	0	11%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	2	0.17	0	3%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	3	0.35	1	15%	1
NSH F. Svechkov	1.1	0	0.22	0	10%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.0	0	0.21	0	7%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.9	1	0.26	0	5%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	2	0.25	1	4%	1
PIT J. Koppanen	0.9	1	0.17	1	11%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.8	1	0.18	0	8%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.8	0	0.18	0	5%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	0	0.25	0	8%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.8	1	0.22	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.