NYI beat PIT 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.34 expected goals to 2.14. NYI outshot PIT 38 to 21. K. Palmieri led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Pelech had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. I. Sorokin stopped 19 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 4:40PITJ. Koppanen0.06 xG
- 1st 19:45PITS. Crosby0.07 xG
- 3rd 0:17NYIK. Palmieri0.19 xG
- 3rd 5:34NYIN. Dobson0.29 xG
- 3rd 13:08NYIP. Engvall0.05 xG
- 3rd 18:28NYIS. HolmstromEN0.46 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 3.34 xGPIT 2.14 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:57 | 1:35 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:38 | 1:38 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:27 | 1:31 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:29 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:25 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:22 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 24:03 | 1:45 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:00 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:05 | 1:30 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 22:38 | 0:30 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:15 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 59:52 | Win |
| M. Hogberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:09 | 4:05 |
| J. Koppanen | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:47 | 3:45 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:45 | 2:46 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:43 | 3:17 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:43 | 1:55 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 3:51 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 2:07 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Imama | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:06 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:34 | 2:15 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:00 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:26 | 3:38 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:29 | 2:21 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 37 | 34 | 3 | .919 | 59:15 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 3.1, PIT 3.0 | NYI 4, PIT 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 29.2, PIT 29.6 | NYI 38, PIT 21 |
| Win chance | NYI 51% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.0 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.7 | 5 | 1.10 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.7 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.5 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.4 | 4 | 0.64 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.3 | 2 | 0.73 | 3 | 29% | 1 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.3 | 5 | 0.61 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.1 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.8 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.8 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.6 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI M. Reilly | 1.6 | 4 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.6 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.5 | 5 | 0.35 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.5 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.4 | 3 | 0.61 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.2 | 3 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.1 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT C. Timmins | 0.9 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT J. Koppanen | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 0.7 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT V. Kolyachonok | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.7 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT B. Imama | 0.4 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.