Game Recap: NYI 1, TOR 3, December 31, 2024

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Game Recap

NYI1

FinalTue, Dec 31, 2024Every game that night

TOR3

TOR beat NYI 3-1, with the chances close: 3.26 expected goals to 2.67. W. Nylander led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Pageau had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Woll stopped 30 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	1	0	1
TOR	1	1	1	3

1st 17:54TORD. Kampf0.07 xG
2nd 11:59NYIJ. Pageau0.17 xG
2nd 12:15TORS. Lorentz0.13 xG
3rd 19:27TORJ. TavaresEN0.79 xG

Team Stats

NYITOR

31Shots on goal25

2.67Expected goals3.26

61Shot attempts54

245v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play1/4

20Hits22

17Blocked shots15

20Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways10

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.67 xGTOR 3.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI31 on goal, 1 scored

TOR25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:18	1:20
J. Pageau	C	1	0	1	5	6	2	+1	10	18:43	0:43
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	19:30	1:16
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	18:33	0:44
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	2	15:37	0:40
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	15:19	1:15
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	15:05	0:45
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	4	14:13	1:17
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:39	0:00
H. Fasching	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	8:20	0:00
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:15	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7:16	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	5	0	3	0	2	22:03	1:33
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	22:07	0:27
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	21:30	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	20:31	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:54	0:00
I. George	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	14:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	24	22	2	.917	58:52	Loss
M. Hogberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	0	2	2	4	0	0	+1	0	21:27	4:11
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	21:23	4:09
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	2	21:13	3:23
D. Kampf	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:34	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	1	1	1	4	1	+1	0	8:48	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	8:28	0:04
R. Reaves	RW	0	1	1	0	6	0	+1	0	8:14	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	+1	2	20:12	4:01
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:04	2:00
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:54	1:14
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:18	2:43
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:05	1:31
C. Tanev	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	0	17:39	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	25:39	2:11
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	23:26	4:10
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	16:49	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	16:44	1:13
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	15:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	31	30	1	.968	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownCasey Cizikas NYI Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.0, TOR 3.4	NYI 1, TOR 3
Total goals	6.4	4
Shots on goal	NYI 28.5, TOR 31.0	NYI 31, TOR 25
Win chance	TOR 57%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR W. Nylander	3.4	4	1.14	2	39%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.1	1	0.94	1	33%	1
NYI B. Horvat	2.4	3	0.69	0	28%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.4	1	0.77	1	21%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.3	2	0.59	0	26%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.3	2	0.51	0	24%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.3	2	0.72	0	31%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.2	5	0.60	1	11%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.2	1	0.64	0	26%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.2	0	1.18	1	30%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	2.1	1	0.59	0	21%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	4	0.67	0	9%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.6	5	0.58	0	23%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.6	1	0.58	0	24%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	0	0.38	0	18%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	1	0.53	0	14%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.5	0	0.24	0	5%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.4	5	0.45	1	16%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	1	0.29	0	4%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.3	0	0.32	0	14%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.3	1	0.43	0	15%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.2	1	0.26	0	5%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	0	0.30	0	6%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.35	0	6%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.0	1	0.27	1	10%	1
TOR C. Dewar	1.0	1	0.21	1	9%	0
TOR C. Timmins	1.0	2	0.35	0	4%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	1	0.20	1	10%	1
NYI C. Cizikas	0.8	1	0.20	0	9%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.12	0	2%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.7	0	0.17	0	3%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	2	0.18	0	8%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	1	0.27	1	3%	0
NYI I. George	0.6	3	0.19	0	4%	0
NYI H. Fasching	0.6	2	0.19	0	8%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.6	0	0.15	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.