Game Recap: NYI 4, TOR 1, October 17, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI4

FinalSat, Oct 17, 2026Every game that night

TOR1

NYI beat TOR 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.37 expected goals to 3.37. TOR outshot NYI 29 to 20. S. Holmstrom led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Roslovic had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. I. Sorokin stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	1	1	2	4
TOR	0	0	1	1

1st 8:18NYIA. Duclair0.18 xG
2nd 18:33NYIB. Horvat0.25 xG
3rd 3:54TORC. Sissons0.06 xG
3rd 14:08NYIS. Holmstrom0.14 xG
3rd 17:55NYIS. HolmstromEN0.44 xG

Team Stats

NYITOR

20Shots on goal29

2.37Expected goals3.37

53Shot attempts44

175v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play0/3

29Hits18

4Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways18

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.37 xGTOR 3.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI20 on goal, 4 scored

TOR28 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	1	1	2	2	2	0	+2	0	24:21	3:20
S. Holmstrom	RW	2	0	2	2	0	0	+3	0	20:01	3:18
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	1	3	2	+2	0	19:31	0:30
A. Duclair	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:16	0:32
K. Palmieri	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	14:34	3:20
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	19:39	3:07
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	+1	2	16:31	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	14:25	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:02	0:30
V. Eklund	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:55	0:31
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:39	0:00
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:28	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	2	24:21	3:17
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	22:17	0:12
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	+2	0	20:39	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	2	18:54	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:18	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:09	0:33

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
S. Varlamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Sissons	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	-1	0	15:08	0:07
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	2	14:41	0:47
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	20:34	5:20
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	0	19:56	5:13
G. McKenna	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	17:56	5:07
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	16:45	5:05
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	5	1	3	0	0	15:54	0:46
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	14:49	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	14:36	0:06
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:53	0:00
B. Groulx	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:00	0:48
Z. MacEwen	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	9:43	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	20:21	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	2	24:21	5:15
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	19:57	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:39	0:07
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	17:50	0:47
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:39	0:32

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	19	16	3	.842	59:18	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat18:13S. Holmstrom13:45K. Palmieri11:14

Line 2J. Pageau15:32A. Duclair14:26E. Heineman14:02

Line 3B. Schenn16:32V. Eklund12:24C. Cizikas12:56

Pair 1M. Schaefer20:54L. Stanley18:23

Pair 2A. Pelech16:08R. Pulock16:20

Pair 3T. DeAngelo14:36M. Kessel13:51

TOR

Line 1J. Roslovic14:50A. Matthews14:01W. Nylander14:50

Line 2N. Paul12:40E. Cowan13:22K. Marchenko10:58

Line 3T. Blueger13:25B. Duhaime11:03Z. MacEwen9:43

Line 4C. Sissons12:10B. Groulx9:12G. McKenna12:07

Pair 1J. McCabe16:39D. Raddysh18:16

Pair 2T. Stecher16:52M. Rielly16:30

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson17:35N. Blankenburg13:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 14 overs hit (57%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	-110	-105	1	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	3.5	+120	-154	5	Over
NYI B. Horvat	2.5	-155	+135	2	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	2.5	-105	-115	3	Over
TOR J. Roslovic	2.5	+140	-170	5	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	2.5	+154	-175	3	Over
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	-135	+112	1	Under
NYI B. Schenn	1.5	-125	+100	2	Over
NYI C. Ritchie	1.5	+120	-155	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	-115	+100	2	Over
NYI M. Maccelli	1.5	+100	-125	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	+140	-175	1	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.5	+125	-135	2	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.5	-105	-125	2	Over

4 of 31 overs hit (13%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+500	-800	1	Over
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+140	-150	0	Under
NYI A. Pelech	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under
TOR B. Duhaime	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
TOR B. Groulx	0.5	+750	-2500	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+195	-220	1	Over
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+330	-450	0	Under
NYI C. Cizikas	0.5	+850	-900	0	Under
NYI C. Ritchie	0.5	+450	-650	0	Under
TOR C. Sissons	0.5	+750	-1600	1	Over
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+550	-650	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+380	-400	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+400	-700	0	Under
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+2100	-2800	0	Under
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+275	-380	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+290	-475	0	Under
NYI M. Kessel	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+375	-475	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+340	-550	0	Under
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+450	-750	0	Under
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
NYI O. Palat	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
NYI R. Pulock	0.5	+1400	-2500	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+400	-600	2	Over
TOR T. Blueger	0.5	+800	-1000	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
TOR T. Stecher	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+170	-180	0	Under
TOR Z. MacEwen	0.5	+1200	-1600	0	Under

4 of 19 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+320	-600	0	Under
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+120	-135	0	Under
NYI A. Pelech	0.5	+380	-575	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+160	-210	1	Over
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+180	-210	0	Under
NYI C. Ritchie	0.5	+270	-350	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+116	-140	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+240	-285	1	Over
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+210	-260	1	Over
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+170	-210	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	-105	-115	1	Over
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+260	-350	0	Under
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+300	-360	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+260	-325	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+230	-250	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+110	-115	0	Under

6 of 19 overs hit (32%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+190	-260	1	Over
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	-200	+180	0	Under
NYI A. Pelech	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	-145	+115	2	Over
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+105	-120	0	Under
NYI C. Ritchie	0.5	+155	-175	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	-120	+100	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+135	-160	1	Over
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+210	-285	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+100	-111	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+105	-111	1	Over
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	-105	-120	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+190	-200	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	-155	+125	1	Over
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+250	-285	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+165	-175	2	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+172	-200	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	-200	+170	0	Under

0 of 15 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+175	-235	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+290	-350	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+300	-450	Under
NYI C. Ritchie	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+280	-280	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+500	-750	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+280	-450	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+300	-400	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+195	-240	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+230	-260	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NYI I. Sorokin	25.5	-105	-110	28	Over
TOR S. Bobrovsky	25.5	-105	-115	16	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
TOR J. McCabe	2.5	+120	-165	2	Under
TOR T. Stecher	1.5	+100	-140	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMatias Maccelli NYI Faces TOR, his team until Apr 20260 SOG
HometownCalum Ritchie NYI Plays near home (born in Oakville)0 SOG
HometownCasey Cizikas NYI Plays in his hometown0 SOG
HometownMatthew Schaefer NYI Plays near home (born in Hamilton)1 A, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.2, TOR 2.9	NYI 4, TOR 1
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	NYI 30.9, TOR 25.7	NYI 20, TOR 29
Win chance	NYI 55%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.8	1	1.09	0	42%	0
NYI B. Horvat	3.4	2	0.89	2	34%	1
NYI M. Schaefer	3.2	5	0.85	1	22%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	1	1.15	0	39%	0
TOR D. Raddysh	2.9	3	0.76	0	14%	0
TOR K. Marchenko	2.4	5	0.75	0	28%	0
TOR J. Roslovic	2.2	5	0.53	0	22%	0
NYI M. Maccelli	2.0	0	0.78	0	22%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.0	3	0.58	1	22%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.9	0	0.37	0	20%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.8	2	0.66	0	22%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.7	2	0.42	0	9%	0
TOR N. Paul	1.7	0	0.43	0	21%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	2	0.47	1	18%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	0	0.29	0	6%	0
TOR G. McKenna	1.5	4	0.39	0	14%	0
NYI L. Stanley	1.5	1	0.39	0	9%	0
NYI V. Eklund	1.5	0	0.41	0	15%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.5	2	0.56	2	22%	2
TOR M. Rielly	1.4	1	0.43	0	8%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.3	0	0.44	0	16%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	1	0.48	1	17%	0
TOR C. Sissons	1.2	1	0.29	1	12%	1
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	0	0.26	0	11%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.2	1	0.38	1	16%	1
NYI O. Palat	1.1	0	0.29	0	13%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.1	1	0.30	0	7%	0
TOR T. Blueger	1.1	2	0.28	0	10%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.0	0	0.30	0	5%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.31	0	6%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.0	0	0.18	1	4%	0
TOR B. Duhaime	0.8	1	0.16	0	8%	0
TOR B. Groulx	0.8	1	0.15	0	8%	0
TOR N. Blankenburg	0.8	1	0.19	0	5%	0
NYI M. Kessel	0.7	0	0.14	0	4%	0
TOR Z. MacEwen	0.7	0	0.08	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.