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Game Recap
NYR4
CBJ3
NYR beat CBJ 4-3, with the chances close: 2.51 expected goals to 2.61. NYR outshot CBJ 40 to 25. W. Cuylle led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Olivier had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Quick stopped 22 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| CBJ | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 1:56NYRA. Kaliyev0.03 xG
- 1st 14:31CBJK. Johnson0.05 xG
- 1st 15:29CBJJ. Danforth0.08 xG
- 2nd 6:38NYRM. Zibanejad0.07 xG
- 2nd 17:17CBJJ. van Riemsdyk0.10 xG
- 3rd 1:57NYRU. Vaakanainen0.06 xG
- 3rd 18:21NYRW. Cuylle0.13 xG
Team Stats
NYRCBJ
40Shots on goal25
2.51Expected goals2.61
73Shot attempts53
395v5 shots on goal23
0/0Power play0/0
24Hits18
17Blocked shots16
2Penalty minutes2
17Giveaways18
5Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 2.51 xGCBJ 2.61 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:00 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Kaliyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:33 | 0:00 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:28 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:26 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:40 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:11 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 26:59 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:00 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:06 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:25 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 28:47 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Harris | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 40 | 36 | 4 | .900 | 58:37 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.0, CBJ 2.9 | NYR 4, CBJ 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 28.6, CBJ 29.9 | NYR 40, CBJ 25 |
| Win chance | NYR 51% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.5 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.1 | 2 | 1.16 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 3.0 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.8 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.5 | 3 | 0.83 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.4 | 4 | 0.75 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.4 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.3 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.2 | 1 | 0.94 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.71 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.8 | 4 | 0.75 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR A. Kaliyev | 1.8 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.8 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 4 | 0.37 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.5 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.5 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Belluz | 1.4 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.3 | 7 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.2 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR J. Vesey | 1.0 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 0.5 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.