PHI beat NYR 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.38 expected goals to 1.78. PHI outshot NYR 35 to 23. T. Konecny led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). G. Hathaway had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. I. Fedotov stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| PHI | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 3:14PHIB. Brink0.22 xG
- 1st 4:24PHIT. Konecny0.17 xG
- 2nd 10:20NYRV. Trocheck0.15 xG
- 3rd 19:32PHIT. KonecnyEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 1.78 xGPHI 5.38 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:30 | 0:00 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 | 0:00 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:00 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:16 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:30 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 57:52 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:17 | 1:37 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:12 | 1:42 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:15 |
| B. Brink | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:23 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:19 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 1:45 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 1:49 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:11 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:49 | 0:18 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:49 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:25 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:02 | 1:41 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:00 |
| H. Grans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Fedotov | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Kolosov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.3, PHI 2.9 | NYR 1, PHI 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 27.4, PHI 33.2 | NYR 23, PHI 35 |
| Win chance | NYR 56% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI T. Konecny | 3.2 | 4 | 0.95 | 2 | 33% | 2 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.2 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.8 | 1 | 1.21 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.3 | 4 | 0.84 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.3 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 2.2 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.1 | 2 | 0.86 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 2.1 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.8 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.8 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.7 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.6 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.6 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.6 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.5 | 0 | 0.88 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 4 | 0.37 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.3 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.1 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI H. Grans | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR J. Vesey | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.