Game Recap: NYR 5, PIT 3, February 23, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NYR5

FinalSun, Feb 23, 2025Every game that night

PIT3

NYR beat PIT 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.30 expected goals to 3.73. PIT outshot NYR 40 to 16. J. Miller led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Nieto had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. I. Shesterkin stopped 37 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	1	3	5
PIT	1	0	2	3

1st 12:53PITE. Malkin0.13 xG
1st 19:12NYRW. CuyllePP0.06 xG
2nd 17:00NYRJ. Miller0.06 xG
3rd 0:57PITR. Shea0.06 xG
3rd 3:31PITR. Shea0.01 xG
3rd 4:21NYRJ. Vesey0.05 xG
3rd 11:26NYRA. Fox0.11 xG
3rd 19:53NYRJ. MillerEN0.85 xG

Team Stats

NYRPIT

16Shots on goal40

2.30Expected goals3.73

41Shot attempts82

135v5 shots on goal30

1/1Power play0/3

29Hits11

18Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways18

3Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.30 xGPIT 3.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR16 on goal, 5 scored

PIT40 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Vesey	LW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	0	18:10	0:00
J. Miller	C	2	0	2	2	5	1	0	0	16:56	1:00
R. Smith	RW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	0	14:19	0:17
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	20:17	1:02
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	17:22	1:17
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	15:56	1:14
W. Cuylle	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	2	14:17	0:29
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-2	0	14:29	0:31
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:52	0:00
A. Kaliyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:05	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:38	0:14
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	6:52	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	2	2	1	0	5	+2	0	22:14	0:00
A. Fox	D	1	1	2	1	0	2	0	0	20:14	1:16
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	23:24	0:15
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	4	3	-1	0	19:46	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:18	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	15:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	40	37	3	.925	60:00	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	1	1	2	1	1	1	+1	0	16:19	2:21
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	5	1	1	-2	0	23:08	3:36
C. Glass	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+2	0	15:54	2:20
K. Hayes	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:51	3:22
D. Heinen	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:34	1:23
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-3	0	21:38	3:38
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-2	0	16:27	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	15:18	4:21
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:47	0:08
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	12:29	2:18
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:20	0:09
M. Nieto	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	10:41	0:06
R. Shea	D	2	0	2	2	0	2	+1	0	20:37	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-3	0	27:54	3:42
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	+2	2	23:41	2:18
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	21:02	0:18
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:24	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Blomqvist	15	11	4	.733	58:25	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.0, PIT 2.8	NYR 5, PIT 3
Total goals	5.8	8
Shots on goal	NYR 28.2, PIT 29.8	NYR 16, PIT 40
Win chance	NYR 53%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT S. Crosby	3.2	5	1.15	1	34%	0
PIT R. Rakell	3.0	3	0.83	0	30%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	0	1.13	1	32%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.6	1	0.72	1	13%	0
PIT K. Hayes	2.4	2	0.51	1	19%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	0	0.84	1	26%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.3	1	0.74	1	25%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	2.2	4	0.41	0	17%	0
PIT M. Bunting	2.1	4	0.62	0	23%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	2	0.57	0	23%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.1	2	0.96	2	27%	2
PIT K. Letang	2.0	4	0.50	0	10%	0
NYR A. Kaliyev	1.9	0	0.34	0	15%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.8	1	0.80	2	12%	1
PIT C. Glass	1.8	3	0.37	1	13%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	2	0.41	1	19%	1
PIT P. Tomasino	1.7	3	0.46	0	15%	0
PIT E. Malkin	1.6	1	0.62	2	20%	1
NYR R. Smith	1.6	2	0.50	2	18%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.5	0	0.36	1	9%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	0	0.30	0	11%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.4	2	0.41	1	17%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.2	1	0.24	0	5%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	2	0.23	0	5%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.2	0	0.36	0	4%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.2	0	0.32	0	14%	0
NYR J. Vesey	1.2	1	0.26	2	12%	1
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	0	0.19	0	11%	0
PIT P. Joseph	1.1	1	0.20	0	4%	0
PIT M. Nieto	1.0	4	0.20	0	9%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	0	0.25	0	11%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.9	1	0.28	2	5%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.9	1	0.21	0	3%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.8	1	0.15	0	4%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.8	0	0.17	0	8%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.5	2	0.09	2	3%	2

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.