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Game Recap
NYR4
FinalThu, Oct 22, 2026Every game that night
TOR5

TOR beat NYR 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.15 expected goals to 2.07. TOR outshot NYR 35 to 25. A. Fox led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). J. McCabe had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 21 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NYR1214
TOR2215
  1. 1st 1:36TORE. Cowan0.12 xG
  2. 1st 5:39NYRM. Zibanejad0.04 xG
  3. 1st 10:01TORT. Blueger0.11 xG
  4. 2nd 2:37NYRO. Bjorkstrand0.31 xG
  5. 2nd 6:30NYRT. Kartye0.19 xG
  6. 2nd 8:00TORB. Duhaime0.13 xG
  7. 2nd 19:09TORK. MarchenkoPP0.04 xG
  8. 3rd 14:25NYRA. Lafrenière0.04 xG
  9. 3rd 19:32TORT. Stecher0.10 xG

Team Stats

NYRTOR
25Shots on goal35
2.07Expected goals3.15
56Shot attempts61
235v5 shots on goal30
0/1Power play1/2
34Hits19
6Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes2
11Giveaways21
3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.07 xGTOR 3.15 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdTOR goal, 1:36NYR goal, 5:39TOR goal, 10:01NYR goal, 2:37NYR goal, 6:30TOR goal, 8:00TOR goal, 19:09NYR goal, 14:25TOR goal, 19:32

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR24 on goal, 4 scored
TOR35 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ZibanejadC112330+1021:361:07
A. LafrenièreLW101110+1219:031:09
P. DorofeyevRW011200-1016:331:08
T. KartyeLW101240-2016:260:00
O. BjorkstrandRW101210+1010:230:45
J. DowlingC011020+106:560:00
G. PerreaultRW000130+1019:230:53
J. MillerC000100-2017:011:03
W. CuylleLW000152-1016:080:51
N. LabaC0001200015:040:01
E. TolvanenRW0000100012:120:51
T. RaddyshRW000200+108:320:00
A. FoxD044001+4023:591:07
V. GavrikovD011322+3225:020:08
M. PetterssonD000130-2021:160:00
S. DurziD000310-2018:010:57
B. SchneiderD000241-2017:130:00
A. SmitsD000020-1012:270:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Garand35305.85759:32Loss
S. Martin000–0:00

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. DuhaimeLW123250+2014:140:00
T. BluegerC112101+1015:180:00
Z. MacEwenRW022210+207:060:00
W. NylanderRW011100-1020:122:31
K. MarchenkoRW101442-1018:232:33
E. CowanRW1014010016:480:35
J. RoslovicC0113300215:580:40
G. McKennaLW011100-1010:442:33
A. MatthewsC0004000019:162:38
N. PaulLW0001210017:270:00
C. SissonsC000011-1015:340:00
V. LettieriC000023-1010:080:42
J. McCabeD0115040021:030:00
M. RiellyD0113010020:580:35
T. StecherD101102+1020:170:00
D. RaddyshD0002000024:172:38
O. Ekman-LarssonD0001100019:220:40
N. BlankenburgD000000-1011:270:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Bobrovsky25214.84059:28Win
A. Stolarz000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1A. Lafrenière16:54G. Perreault17:30M. Zibanejad18:44
Line 2P. Dorofeyev14:57T. Kartye15:08J. Miller14:33
Line 3W. Cuylle13:52N. Laba13:38E. Tolvanen10:48
Line 4O. Bjorkstrand9:38T. Raddysh8:32J. Dowling6:56
Pair 1V. Gavrikov23:50A. Fox20:49
Pair 2M. Pettersson18:54S. Durzi17:04
Pair 3B. Schneider15:14A. Smits11:54

TOR

Line 1W. Nylander17:09N. Paul16:19K. Marchenko15:50
Line 2A. Matthews15:38E. Cowan15:41J. Roslovic14:46
Line 3T. Blueger13:54B. Duhaime13:14Z. MacEwen7:06
Line 4C. Sissons14:08G. McKenna8:11V. Lettieri9:26
Pair 1D. Raddysh21:11J. McCabe19:20
Pair 2M. Rielly19:38T. Stecher19:02
Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson17:27N. Blankenburg10:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
TOR A. Matthews3.5+105-1254Over
NYR A. Lafrenière2.5+130-1551Under
TOR D. Raddysh2.5+110-1302Under
NYR M. Zibanejad2.5+110-1303Over
NYR P. Dorofeyev2.5-148+1202Under
TOR W. Nylander2.5-110-1081Under
NYR A. Fox1.5-115+1000Under
TOR E. Cowan1.5-115-1104Over
NYR E. Tolvanen1.5-108-1100Under
NYR G. Perreault1.5-130+1101Under
NYR J. Miller1.5-180+1441Under
TOR J. Roslovic1.5-160+1303Over
TOR M. Rielly1.5+115-1403Over
TOR N. Paul1.5-102-1201Under
NYR V. Gavrikov1.5+122-1353Over
NYR W. Cuylle1.5-148+1251Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • HometownSean Durzi NYR Plays near home (born in Mississauga)3 SOG
  • HometownWill Cuylle NYR Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNYR 3.2, TOR 3.0NYR 4, TOR 5
Total goals6.29
Shots on goalNYR 27.4, TOR 26.6NYR 25, TOR 35
Win chanceNYR 52%TOR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
TOR A. Matthews3.541.09041%0
NYR P. Dorofeyev3.020.74132%0
TOR D. Raddysh3.020.68014%0
TOR K. Marchenko2.640.83130%1
TOR W. Nylander2.611.10137%0
NYR M. Zibanejad2.531.01231%1
NYR A. Lafrenière2.210.82127%1
TOR J. Roslovic2.130.55122%0
NYR J. Miller2.010.97028%0
NYR W. Cuylle2.010.50020%0
NYR G. Perreault1.810.57021%0
TOR G. McKenna1.710.46116%0
NYR A. Fox1.600.86415%0
TOR N. Paul1.610.44021%0
TOR E. Cowan1.640.54119%1
TOR M. Rielly1.630.4419%0
TOR V. Lettieri1.600.28013%0
NYR E. Tolvanen1.500.37016%0
NYR V. Gavrikov1.330.36110%0
NYR T. Kartye1.320.47116%1
NYR O. Bjorkstrand1.320.35114%1
NYR S. Durzi1.330.42010%0
TOR C. Sissons1.200.32013%0
NYR B. Schneider1.220.2406%0
TOR T. Blueger1.110.31211%1
TOR T. Stecher1.110.1915%1
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.110.3005%0
NYR N. Laba1.110.35013%0
TOR J. McCabe0.950.2314%0
TOR B. Duhaime0.820.1739%1
NYR M. Pettersson0.810.2905%0
NYR T. Raddysh0.820.2509%0
TOR Z. MacEwen0.720.0924%0
NYR A. Smits0.700.1204%0
NYR J. Dowling0.600.1316%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.