Game Recap: NYR 2, VGK 1, January 11, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NYR2

FinalSat, Jan 11, 2025Every game that night

VGK1

NYR beat VGK 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.03 expected goals to 2.83. R. Smith had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. I. Shesterkin stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	0	1	1	2
VGK	0	1	0	1

2nd 6:16VGKM. StonePP0.25 xG
2nd 9:54NYRV. TrocheckPP0.16 xG
3rd 5:57NYRA. Edstrom0.05 xG

Team Stats

NYRVGK

26Shots on goal30

2.03Expected goals2.83

59Shot attempts65

255v5 shots on goal25

1/1Power play1/3

14Hits21

21Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes2

11Giveaways18

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.03 xGVGK 2.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR26 on goal, 2 scored

VGK30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Trocheck	C	1	0	1	5	1	2	0	2	21:34	1:24
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	18:51	1:24
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:53	1:24
J. Brodzinski	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	7:11	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	6:36	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	6:32	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	18:26	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:05	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	2	17:42	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:42	1:24
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	14:30	0:00
A. Kaliyev	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	12:08	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	23:07	1:24
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	21:15	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	21:09	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	+1	0	20:34	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	18:02	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	14:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	24:05	4:00
M. Stone	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	22:43	3:59
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	4	2	1	0	0	17:02	3:56
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	3	4	3	0	0	18:24	0:12
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:38	3:22
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:11	1:10
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:11	0:46
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	14:44	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	12:45	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	8:23	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:21	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	8:03	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	25:50	4:03
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	20:42	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	20:29	0:08
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	18:47	0:05
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:06	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Samsonov	26	24	2	.923	57:59	Loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamPavel Dorofeyev NYR First game back in Las Vegas, his team until Jun 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.9, VGK 3.4	NYR 2, VGK 1
Total goals	6.3	3
Shots on goal	NYR 28.1, VGK 33.9	NYR 26, VGK 30
Win chance	VGK 59%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.6	1	1.12	1	31%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	1	1.05	1	31%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.7	2	0.53	0	26%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.6	0	0.62	0	25%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.5	5	0.77	1	26%	1
VGK V. Olofsson	2.3	2	0.60	0	27%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.2	2	0.65	0	23%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.2	3	0.71	1	24%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	4	0.62	1	23%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.2	2	0.96	1	28%	1
VGK A. Pietrangelo	2.0	2	0.53	0	8%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.9	5	0.53	0	10%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	0	0.65	0	8%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.7	5	0.52	0	19%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	1	0.38	0	17%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.6	0	0.72	0	10%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.6	1	0.40	0	15%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	2	0.41	0	19%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	3	0.63	0	22%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	2	0.24	1	10%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.3	1	0.38	0	15%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.3	0	0.29	0	7%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.2	1	0.26	0	12%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.2	0	0.17	0	4%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	0	0.26	0	4%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	1	0.19	0	4%	0
NYR A. Kaliyev	1.0	3	0.17	0	8%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	3	0.21	0	10%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NYR J. Vesey	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.8	2	0.19	0	5%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	1	0.15	1	9%	1
NYR R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.22	0	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.7	1	0.14	0	2%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.5	0	0.10	1	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.