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Game Recap
OTT3
FinalSun, Nov 1, 2026Every game that night
ANA6

ANA beat OTT 6-3, with the chances close: 2.66 expected goals to 2.74. ANA outshot OTT 33 to 22. C. Gauthier scored three for ANA. R. McQueen had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. L. Brossoit stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
OTT3003
ANA0336
  1. 1st 6:00OTTP. Tomasino0.44 xG
  2. 1st 7:02OTTC. Giroux0.12 xG
  3. 1st 17:37OTTM. Amadio0.26 xG
  4. 2nd 1:35ANAC. Gauthier0.06 xG
  5. 2nd 3:33ANAJ. Caulfield0.04 xG
  6. 2nd 19:18ANAJ. CaulfieldPP0.13 xG
  7. 3rd 1:50ANAC. GauthierPP0.11 xG
  8. 3rd 2:26ANAC. GauthierPP0.15 xG
  9. 3rd 15:19ANAR. McQueenPP0.09 xG

Team Stats

OTTANA
22Shots on goal33
2.74Expected goals2.66
46Shot attempts54
155v5 shots on goal22
0/3Power play4/5
17Hits24
12Blocked shots15
25Penalty minutes12
19Giveaways17
3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.74 xGANA 2.66 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdOTT goal, 6:00OTT goal, 7:02OTT goal, 17:37ANA goal, 1:35ANA goal, 3:33ANA goal, 19:18ANA goal, 1:50ANA goal, 2:26ANA goal, 15:19

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT21 on goal, 3 scored
ANA32 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. GirouxRW112311+2014:022:21
M. AmadioRW101200+2017:180:10
D. BathersonRW011100-1016:193:27
P. TomasinoRW101100-1011:180:46
T. StützleC0001300222:544:06
S. PintoC000130-1018:582:06
R. GreigC000021+2217:321:24
D. CozensC00002001516:573:25
F. ZetterlundLW0003100215:091:26
N. CousinsC0000010010:180:10
S. HallidayC0002100010:023:17
X. BourgaultRW000000002:490:00
J. SandersonD022101+1223:593:39
T. ChabotD0110140019:272:03
A. ZubD011100+1018:530:00
T. KlevenD0002320018:110:00
J. SpenceD0002020017:390:10
N. MatinpaloD0002000216:190:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Johansson33276.81860:00Loss
S. Ersson000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CarlssonC0332000020:405:45
C. GauthierLW3035100019:025:49
J. CaulfieldRW2133200013:211:40
M. GranlundC0112000020:045:51
R. McQueenC1014200011:461:42
N. NesterenkoC011210009:351:39
B. SenneckeRW0003100020:535:49
A. KillornLW0000200216:321:45
T. WasheC000113-1216:130:00
A. GreerLW000240-1210:300:00
S. ColangeloRW000110-1010:270:00
J. MalottLW000321008:300:00
T. LuneauD022100-1020:122:50
J. LaCombeD0112120228:044:40
N. WarrenD0111410211:160:00
D. HellesonD0001130221:590:00
P. MintyukovD0000150021:270:00
T. MitchellD000000-109:290:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Brossoit22193.86460:00Win
L. Dostal000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1T. Stützle14:40F. Zetterlund13:09D. Cozens12:54
Line 2C. Giroux10:50M. Amadio12:53R. Greig11:17
Line 3D. Batherson11:36P. Tomasino10:28S. Pinto11:28
Line 4N. Cousins9:36S. Halliday6:45X. Bourgault2:49
Pair 1T. Chabot14:48J. Spence15:16
Pair 2J. Sanderson15:16A. Zub13:29
Pair 3T. Kleven13:46N. Matinpalo13:00

ANA

Line 1C. Gauthier12:32B. Sennecke13:26M. Granlund10:21
Line 2A. Killorn11:20J. Caulfield10:54L. Carlsson11:05
Line 3T. Washe12:30A. Greer10:30S. Colangelo10:27
Line 4R. McQueen9:24N. Nesterenko7:09J. Malott8:30
Pair 1D. Helleson17:40J. LaCombe19:39
Pair 2P. Mintyukov16:52T. Luneau16:02
Pair 3N. Warren9:15T. Mitchell6:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 16 overs hit (44%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
ANA C. Gauthier3.5-125+1085Over
ANA B. Sennecke2.5+105-1103Over
OTT D. Batherson2.5+150-1851Under
OTT D. Cozens2.5+128-1450Under
ANA L. Carlsson2.5+130-1562Under
ANA A. Killorn1.5+105-1250Under
OTT C. Giroux1.5+100-1183Over
OTT F. Zetterlund1.5-115-1053Over
ANA J. LaCombe1.5+110-1302Over
OTT J. Sanderson1.5-160+1351Under
ANA M. Granlund1.5-155+1322Over
OTT R. Greig1.5-115-1100Under
OTT S. Halliday1.5+125-1552Over
OTT S. Pinto1.5-148+1201Under
OTT T. Chabot1.5-115-1050Under
OTT T. Stützle1.5-175+1351Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreOTT 3.1, ANA 3.6OTT 3, ANA 6
Total goals6.79
Shots on goalOTT 26.3, ANA 28.3OTT 22, ANA 33
Win chanceANA 58%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.850.99337%3
ANA B. Sennecke2.730.90033%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.520.97331%0
OTT D. Cozens2.400.67024%0
OTT T. Stützle2.311.08032%0
OTT D. Batherson2.110.85129%0
OTT S. Pinto2.010.64026%0
ANA M. Granlund2.020.94129%0
OTT J. Sanderson2.010.69213%0
OTT F. Zetterlund1.830.40016%0
OTT T. Chabot1.700.52111%0
OTT R. Greig1.700.48018%0
OTT C. Giroux1.630.64220%1
ANA A. Killorn1.600.49022%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.620.86114%0
ANA A. Greer1.620.47020%0
OTT S. Halliday1.420.38013%0
ANA S. Colangelo1.410.42019%0
ANA J. Caulfield1.330.48318%2
OTT J. Spence1.220.3607%0
OTT T. Kleven1.220.2406%0
OTT M. Amadio1.220.44119%1
ANA R. McQueen1.140.24111%1
ANA N. Nesterenko1.120.29112%0
ANA T. Luneau1.110.4029%0
ANA T. Washe1.110.34016%0
ANA J. Malott1.030.2309%0
OTT A. Zub0.910.3015%0
ANA D. Helleson0.910.3006%0
ANA P. Mintyukov0.900.2707%0
OTT N. Cousins0.800.2008%0
ANA N. Warren0.710.2815%0
OTT N. Matinpalo0.720.1302%0
ANA T. Mitchell0.700.1905%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.