Game Recap: OTT 4, BUF 8, October 15, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT4

FinalWed, Oct 15, 2025Every game that night

BUF8

BUF beat OTT 8-4, with the chances close: 3.71 expected goals to 3.90. OTT outshot BUF 37 to 27. Z. Benson led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). R. McLeod had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Lyon stopped 33 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	1	1	2	4
BUF	1	4	3	8

1st 8:01BUFJ. QuinnPP0.14 xG
1st 16:09OTTT. Stützle0.09 xG
2nd 3:58OTTJ. SandersonPP0.42 xG
2nd 6:46BUFR. McLeodSH0.13 xG
2nd 10:17BUFA. Tuch0.37 xG
2nd 11:46BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.13 xG
2nd 13:43BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.12 xG
3rd 0:40OTTS. Pinto0.15 xG
3rd 2:15OTTL. Eller0.21 xG
3rd 2:32BUFR. McLeod0.14 xG
3rd 3:17BUFJ. Quinn0.14 xG
3rd 16:44BUFJ.KulichEN0.85 xG

Team Stats

OTTBUF

37Shots on goal27

3.90Expected goals3.71

76Shot attempts42

255v5 shots on goal17

1/5Power play3/3

21Hits28

10Blocked shots20

10Penalty minutes12

13Giveaways14

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.90 xGBUF 3.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT35 on goal, 4 scored

BUF27 on goal, 8 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	-2	0	21:12	4:30
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	2	17:44	5:04
L. Eller	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:36	5:06
R. Greig	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	-2	2	16:25	4:30
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	5	2	0	-3	0	15:59	4:20
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	2	14:38	0:06
N. Cousins	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	11:10	0:00
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-3	0	17:27	4:20
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:50	4:43
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	4	15:41	5:18
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:43	0:03
O. Lycksell	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	11:59	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	3	3	2	4	1	+3	0	17:59	0:08
J. Sanderson	D	1	1	2	3	0	2	0	0	22:07	4:26
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	21:56	4:54
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	16:11	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	15:58	0:07
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	26	19	7	.731	58:06	Loss
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Benson	LW	0	4	4	2	1	1	+1	0	16:52	2:13
J. Doan	RW	0	3	3	3	2	0	+1	0	13:55	2:17
A. Tuch	RW	1	1	2	4	0	3	+2	2	20:00	0:26
R. McLeod	C	2	0	2	5	0	0	+3	0	17:28	0:00
T. Thompson	C	0	2	2	0	5	2	-2	0	16:46	2:39
J. Quinn	RW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+1	0	15:49	0:26
J. Zucker	LW	2	0	2	3	3	0	0	0	11:43	2:13
J.Kulich	C	1	0	1	1	2	2	-2	0	13:45	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	2	12:52	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	14:40	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:10	0:00
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:14	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	2	2	3	0	1	-2	0	25:52	2:39
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	2	25:54	0:22
O. Power	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	+2	0	23:44	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+2	2	12:47	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	2	24:36	0:00
R. Johnson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	5:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	37	33	4	.892	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1F. Zetterlund13:41T. Stützle14:17M. Amadio11:39

Line 2N. Cousins11:06O. Lycksell11:55L. Eller10:55

Line 3D. Perron11:11D. Batherson12:08D. Cozens10:37

Line 4S. Pinto10:14R. Greig10:31C. Giroux9:33

Pair 1N. Jensen15:27T. Chabot15:31

Pair 2T. Kleven15:51J. Spence17:44

Pair 3J. Sanderson14:38A. Zub12:42

BUF

Line 1P. Krebs12:44J. Quinn13:25J. Zucker9:28

Line 2T. Thompson13:31Z. Benson12:15J.Kulich13:32

Line 3R. McLeod13:15J. Doan11:28A. Tuch14:56

Line 4T. Kozak10:42B. Malenstyn8:11J. Danforth4:02

Pair 1R. Dahlin18:26B. Byram21:58

Pair 2C. Timmins16:41O. Power17:15

Pair 3J. Bryson12:43R. Johnson5:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDylan Cozens OTT Faces BUF, his team until Mar 20251 A, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.2, BUF 3.3	OTT 4, BUF 8
Total goals	6.4	12
Shots on goal	OTT 28.0, BUF 28.5	OTT 37, BUF 27
Win chance	BUF 52%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.6	0	1.00	2	42%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.7	3	0.82	2	17%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.5	4	0.85	2	32%	1
BUF J.Kulich	2.4	1	0.49	1	23%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.4	3	0.67	2	25%	2
OTT J. Sanderson	2.3	3	0.63	2	11%	1
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	5	0.64	1	22%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	3	0.78	0	26%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	5	0.95	1	27%	1
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	3	0.57	0	12%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.1	3	0.45	3	18%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	3	0.65	1	26%	1
OTT F. Zetterlund	2.0	2	0.43	1	18%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	2	0.43	4	16%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	3	0.54	2	20%	2
OTT R. Greig	1.6	0	0.47	1	18%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.6	0	0.52	0	21%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	0	0.40	1	6%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	2	0.61	0	20%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.5	5	0.63	2	21%	2
BUF J. Danforth	1.4	0	0.34	0	15%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	1	0.44	0	20%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	0	0.49	1	12%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	1	0.33	1	11%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	0	0.29	0	6%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.1	3	0.24	1	11%	1
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	4	0.18	0	5%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.1	1	0.30	0	5%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.0	0	0.23	1	9%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.0	1	0.25	0	4%	0
OTT O. Lycksell	0.9	0	0.27	0	7%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.16	0	7%	0
OTT J. Spence	0.8	2	0.24	3	3%	0
BUF R. Johnson	0.8	0	0.15	0	2%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	1	0.19	0	10%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.13	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.