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Game Recap
OTT2
CBJ5
CBJ beat OTT 5-2, with the chances close: 3.21 expected goals to 3.48. T. Chabot led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Sanderson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. E. Merzlikins stopped 33 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| CBJ | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 7:00CBJD. Voronkov0.16 xG
- 1st 16:38CBJJ. Danforth0.25 xG
- 2nd 16:18OTTF. ZetterlundPP0.65 xG
- 2nd 19:38CBJM. Olivier0.05 xG
- 3rd 2:37CBJS. MonahanPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 11:42CBJA. Fantilli0.23 xG
- 3rd 15:10OTTT. Chabot0.28 xG
Team Stats
OTTCBJ
35Shots on goal35
3.48Expected goals3.21
73Shot attempts69
225v5 shots on goal28
1/4Power play1/2
27Hits23
23Blocked shots20
6Penalty minutes10
13Giveaways16
0Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 3.48 xGCBJ 3.21 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:16 | 4:27 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 3:15 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:47 | 2:47 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:24 | 2:43 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 19:15 | 4:38 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:22 | 4:28 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:06 | 4:33 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:25 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:23 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:58 | 2:53 |
| A. Crookshank | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:03 |
| T. Chabot | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:45 | 3:27 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 24:45 | 4:26 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:27 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 35 | 30 | 5 | .857 | 59:59 | Loss |
| L. Ullmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Olivier | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:12 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 2:44 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| S. Monahan | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19:25 | 2:44 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:12 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 2:44 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 2:44 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:12 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 25:25 | 2:44 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 22:58 | 0:12 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:12 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 35 | 33 | 2 | .943 | 59:39 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.3, CBJ 3.3 | OTT 2, CBJ 5 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 29.8, CBJ 31.0 | OTT 35, CBJ 35 |
| Win chance | CBJ 51% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.4 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.6 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.4 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.4 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.3 | 4 | 0.59 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.3 | 7 | 0.63 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.2 | 5 | 0.77 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.2 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.1 | 3 | 0.54 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 2.0 | 6 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.0 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 1.9 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.9 | 4 | 0.62 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 5 | 0.66 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.7 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.6 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| OTT A. Crookshank | 1.3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.