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Game Recap
OTT1
MTL4
MTL beat OTT 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.07 expected goals to 1.70. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Dach had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. S. Montembeault stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| MTL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 10:37MTLE. HeinemanPP0.25 xG
- 1st 15:03MTLC. Caufield0.01 xG
- 3rd 3:50MTLA. Newhook0.11 xG
- 3rd 5:30OTTT. Stützle0.06 xG
- 3rd 7:43MTLC. Caufield0.08 xG
Team Stats
OTTMTL
25Shots on goal26
1.70Expected goals3.07
63Shot attempts41
205v5 shots on goal18
0/4Power play1/4
20Hits21
11Blocked shots22
8Penalty minutes10
16Giveaways14
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 1.70 xGMTL 3.07 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:56 | 4:44 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 18:38 | 4:48 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:25 | 4:47 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:37 | 3:09 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:18 | 3:08 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:12 | 3:10 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 4:49 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:03 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:59 | 3:14 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:51 | 0:00 |
| Z. MacEwen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:41 | 0:00 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 27:36 | 4:35 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:36 | 3:25 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:02 | 0:06 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:02 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 26 | 22 | 4 | .846 | 56:21 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Caufield | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:23 | 4:11 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:38 | 4:19 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:10 | 4:14 |
| A. Newhook | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:29 | 3:33 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:12 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:27 | 0:09 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:07 | 3:31 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 3:38 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:59 | 0:10 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:10 | 4:06 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 3:41 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:35 | 3:29 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:40 | 4:30 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | +2 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:12 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:56 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.4, MTL 3.1 | OTT 1, MTL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 33.6, MTL 27.6 | OTT 25, MTL 26 |
| Win chance | OTT 55% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 4.8 | 1 | 1.02 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.9 | 3 | 0.83 | 2 | 34% | 2 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.8 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.8 | 1 | 0.85 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.8 | 2 | 1.01 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| OTT D. Perron | 2.5 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.5 | 0 | 0.87 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.3 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 2.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.3 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.2 | 1 | 0.68 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.0 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 2.0 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.8 | 6 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 1.8 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.7 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Barron | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.9 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT Z. MacEwen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.