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Game Recap
OTT3
NJD4
NJD beat OTT 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.18 expected goals to 3.11. N. Hischier led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Bratt had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. N. Daws stopped 27 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| NJD | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 5:12NJDN. Hischier0.33 xG
- 1st 14:51NJDC. BrownSH0.19 xG
- 2nd 7:42OTTM. Amadio0.08 xG
- 2nd 10:25OTTS. PintoPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 14:14OTTF. Zetterlund0.28 xG
- 3rd 12:28NJDD. MercerSH0.18 xG
- OT 3:18NJDN. HischierPP0.32 xG
Team Stats
OTTNJD
30Shots on goal30
3.11Expected goals4.18
46Shot attempts58
215v5 shots on goal14
1/4Power play1/4
16Hits12
9Blocked shots7
8Penalty minutes8
11Giveaways21
8Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 3.11 xGNJD 4.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Pinto | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:33 | 3:50 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:53 | 4:21 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:53 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:17 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:58 | 4:25 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:50 | 0:17 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:35 | 1:42 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 2:38 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:22 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 1:43 |
| S. Halliday | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:27 | 3:57 |
| K. MacDermid | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:46 | 0:00 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 26:28 | 0:45 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26:36 | 4:32 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:35 | 0:05 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| L. Thomson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:06 | 1:48 |
| C. Crotty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 30 | 26 | 4 | .867 | 63:18 | OT loss |
| L. Ullmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hischier | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:40 | 5:19 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25:32 | 5:19 |
| D. Mercer | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:56 | 1:47 |
| C. Brown | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 3:21 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 1:48 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:34 | 4:50 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 1:19 |
| L. Hameenaho | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12:09 | 1:17 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| M. McLaughlin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:27 | 0:01 |
| B. Halonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:11 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:59 | 3:22 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:03 | 3:17 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
| T. Vilen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
OTT
Line 1W. Foegele14:16F. Zetterlund13:59L. Eller13:18
Line 2N. Cousins13:33M. Amadio13:53S. Pinto12:19
Line 3D. Cozens14:00R. Greig12:26K. MacDermid5:46
Line 4C. Giroux8:29D. Batherson11:48S. Halliday8:30
Pair 2D. Gilbert16:12N. Matinpalo15:29
Pair 3L. Thomson13:44C. Crotty9:51
NJD
Line 2T. Meier14:47D. Mercer12:42N. Hischier12:44
Line 3N. Bjugstad10:04L. Hameenaho10:52C. Glass10:08
Line 4P. Cotter9:19M. McLaughlin8:26B. Halonen8:11
Pair 2D. Hamilton15:32J. Siegenthaler16:17
Pair 3J. Kovacevic13:21T. Vilen12:09
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.2, NJD 3.0 | OTT 3, NJD 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 26.9, NJD 26.6 | OTT 30, NJD 30 |
| Win chance | OTT 53% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.4 | 3 | 1.14 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.1 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.2 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.2 | 5 | 0.77 | 3 | 30% | 2 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.2 | 4 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 1.9 | 6 | 0.85 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.8 | 4 | 0.54 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.8 | 5 | 0.49 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| NJD C. Brown | 1.7 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.5 | 5 | 0.45 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hameenaho | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT W. Foegele | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.2 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| NJD N. Bjugstad | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT S. Halliday | 1.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT L. Eller | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| OTT L. Thomson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD M. McLaughlin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.6 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD B. Halonen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT C. Crotty | 0.6 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT D. Gilbert | 0.4 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| OTT K. MacDermid | 0.2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.