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Game Recap
OTT2
PHI1
OTT beat PHI 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.53 expected goals to 1.73. OTT outshot PHI 27 to 16. J. Reimer stopped 15 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 9:55OTTN. Cousins0.57 xG
- 3rd 18:46PHIJ. Drysdale0.08 xG
- OT 0:47OTTT. Stützle0.66 xG
Team Stats
OTTPHI
27Shots on goal16
3.53Expected goals1.73
43Shot attempts55
255v5 shots on goal13
0/1Power play0/1
20Hits23
18Blocked shots6
2Penalty minutes2
15Giveaways20
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 3.53 xGPHI 1.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:54 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:33 | 1:16 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:00 |
| N. Cousins | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:20 | 0:43 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:52 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:44 | 0:44 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 1:08 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| S. Halliday | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:34 | 1:17 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:29 | 1:04 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:59 | 0:56 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 1:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 16 | 15 | 1 | .938 | 60:47 | Win |
| H. Shepard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:17 | 1:00 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:41 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 | 0:57 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:46 | 1:02 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:52 | 1:03 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:58 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 1:00 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:58 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:17 | 0:41 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:11 | 0:21 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:57 | 0:10 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:42 | 1:09 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Vladar | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 59:43 | OT loss |
| A. Kolosov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
OTT
Line 1N. Cousins15:52M. Amadio15:56S. Pinto15:12
Line 2R. Greig16:41D. Cozens15:10B. Tkachuk14:53
Line 3C. Giroux14:05T. Stützle16:42D. Batherson14:57
Line 4F. Zetterlund9:11L. Eller9:34S. Halliday6:17
Pair 2A. Zub20:20J. Sanderson18:21
PHI
Line 1T. Konecny18:20C. Dvorak17:51T. Zegras19:13
Line 2B. Brink15:34N. Cates15:22M. Michkov13:58
Line 3G. Hathaway8:17C. Grundstrom9:27S. Couturier14:23
Line 4O. Tippett12:56D. Barkey8:43
Pair 1T. Sanheim22:29R. Ristolainen21:19
Pair 2J. Drysdale21:32C. York19:57
Pair 3N. Seeler12:45N. Juulsen11:56
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.3, PHI 2.9 | OTT 2, PHI 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 25.9, PHI 24.0 | OTT 27, PHI 16 |
| Win chance | OTT 56% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.2 | 4 | 0.82 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.5 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.2 | 2 | 0.98 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.1 | 1 | 0.99 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 2.0 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.0 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 1.9 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.9 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 1.8 | 0 | 0.79 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.6 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 1.4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.3 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.3 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.2 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.1 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI D. Barkey | 1.0 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT S. Halliday | 0.9 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT L. Eller | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.