Game Recap: OTT 1, PHI 3, October 17, 2026

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Game Recap

OTT1

FinalSat, Oct 17, 2026Every game that night

PHI3

PHI beat OTT 3-1, with the chances close: 2.75 expected goals to 2.37. P. Martone led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Zegras had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. D. Vladar stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	1	0	1
PHI	0	2	1	3

2nd 5:55OTTD. Batherson0.14 xG
2nd 9:03PHIP. Martone0.11 xG
2nd 18:33PHIM. MichkovPP0.43 xG
3rd 19:46PHIT. ZegrasEN0.57 xG

Team Stats

OTTPHI

26Shots on goal28

2.37Expected goals2.75

54Shot attempts57

205v5 shots on goal16

0/2Power play1/3

22Hits28

17Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways13

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.37 xGPHI 2.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT26 on goal, 1 scored

PHI28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	23:03	3:05
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	19:58	2:42
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	19:20	2:36
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	18:37	1:02
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:34	0:19
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	14:51	1:11
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	14:27	2:39
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:29	1:18
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	13:27	0:21
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:54	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:14	0:45
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	8:42	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	5	3	0	2	22:29	0:00
C. Yakemchuk	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	21:45	2:44
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	20:25	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	20:18	0:23
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:58	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	12:03	0:55

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	27	25	2	.926	57:46	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Michkov	RW	1	1	2	3	1	1	0	0	14:29	3:34
P. Martone	RW	1	1	2	4	2	0	0	0	13:28	2:02
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	21:41	2:39
T. Zegras	C	1	0	1	5	1	2	+1	2	19:18	3:38
S. Couturier	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	18:00	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:29	2:35
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	2	18:39	3:05
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:39	3:01
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:00	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	11:52	0:00
J. Studnicka	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:05	0:00
G. Wilson	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	7:51	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	-1	0	27:01	0:21
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	0	21:50	3:19
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	0	19:29	0:00
O. Bonk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:12	1:45
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:06	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:08	2:21

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	26	25	1	.962	59:43	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson14:45T. Stützle15:13S. Halliday11:31

Line 2F. Zetterlund12:11W. Foegele12:57R. Greig11:55

Line 3S. Pinto11:53N. Cousins8:42M. Amadio10:27

Line 4C. Giroux13:49D. Cozens11:26A. Burakovsky8:29

Pair 1J. Spence18:41T. Kleven20:09

Pair 2C. Yakemchuk16:47N. Matinpalo13:45

Pair 3T. Chabot9:26A. Zub16:59

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak15:58T. Foerster13:52T. Zegras15:05

Line 2S. Couturier14:04D. Barkey11:55M. Bunting12:39

Line 3P. Martone11:26N. Cates11:02M. Michkov10:38

Line 4N. Acciari9:33J. Studnicka9:05G. Wilson7:51

Pair 1T. Sanheim22:11O. Bonk16:26

Pair 2N. Seeler15:04J. Drysdale16:30

Pair 3S. Benoit13:59D.Jiricek11:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 16 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
OTT D. Batherson	2.5	+142	-180	4	Over
OTT D. Cozens	2.5	+150	-160	3	Over
OTT T. Stützle	2.5	+148	-165	1	Under
OTT A. Burakovsky	1.5	+125	-190	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	+115	-125	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	+100	-130	1	Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk	1.5	-104	-125	2	Over
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	+100	-120	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	1.5	-135	+120	3	Over
PHI P. Martone	1.5	-138	+120	4	Over
PHI S. Couturier	1.5	+125	–	1	Under
OTT S. Halliday	1.5	+105	-125	4	Over
OTT S. Pinto	1.5	-138	+125	1	Under
OTT T. Chabot	1.5	-135	+110	1	Under
PHI T. Foerster	1.5	-146	+125	3	Over
PHI T. Zegras	1.5	-125	-105	5	Over

4 of 34 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
OTT A. Burakovsky	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
OTT A. Zub	0.5	+1200	-3500	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+370	-450	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+440	-650	0	Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+650	-1400	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+480	-900	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+210	-285	1	Over
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+275	-370	0	Under
PHI D.Jiricek	0.5	+1000	-4000	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+440	-650	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+1000	-3500	0	Under
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+950	-2800	0	Under
PHI J. Studnicka	0.5	+1300	-5000	0	Under
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+350	-475	1	Over
PHI N. Acciari	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
OTT N. Cousins	0.5	+950	-1400	0	Under
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.5	+2800	-5000	0	Under
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+2200	-10000	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+1500	-3500	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+340	-475	1	Over
OTT R. Greig	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
PHI S. Benoit	0.5	+2800	–	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+425	-750	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under
OTT T. Kleven	0.5	+1900	-2800	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+230	-250	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+310	-320	1	Over
OTT W. Foegele	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under

6 of 22 overs hit (27%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
OTT A. Burakovsky	0.5	+260	-300	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+250	-330	1	Over
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+190	-245	1	Over
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+215	-260	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+300	-550	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+155	-190	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+185	-250	0	Under
PHI D.Jiricek	0.5	+220	-310	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+190	-255	0	Under
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+295	–	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+175	-215	1	Over
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+280	-375	0	Under
OTT N. Cousins	0.5	+380	–	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+270	-330	1	Over
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+240	–	1	Over
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+295	-375	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+220	-295	0	Under
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+170	-200	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+230	-310	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	-105	-105	1	Over
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+158	-190	0	Under

8 of 22 overs hit (36%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
OTT A. Burakovsky	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+130	-160	1	Over
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+125	-150	1	Over
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+150	-165	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	-135	+115	1	Over
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	-110	-120	0	Under
PHI D.Jiricek	0.5	+190	-230	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+150	-195	0	Under
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+235	-340	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+105	-120	2	Over
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+175	–	0	Under
OTT N. Cousins	0.5	+265	–	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+130	-145	2	Over
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+155	–	1	Over
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+145	-175	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+125	-145	0	Under
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+120	-135	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+115	-135	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+190	-245	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	-175	+170	1	Over
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	-115	-105	1	Over

2 of 18 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
OTT A. Burakovsky	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+360	-800	0	Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+380	-450	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+360	-800	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+240	-375	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
PHI D.Jiricek	0.5	+320	-700	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+290	-500	1	Over
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+390	-600	1	Over
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+375	-800	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+333	-625	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+230	-260	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+260	-350	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
PHI D. Vladar	22.5	-130	+100	25	Over
OTT L. Ullmark	21.5	-110	-115	25	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSamuel Ersson OTT Faces PHI, his team until May 20260 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.0, PHI 2.6	OTT 1, PHI 3
Total goals	5.6	4
Shots on goal	OTT 27.2, PHI 23.3	OTT 26, PHI 28
Win chance	OTT 57%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT D. Cozens	2.4	3	0.62	0	24%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	1	1.00	1	31%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	1	0.61	0	14%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	4	0.77	1	28%	1
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	3	0.53	0	26%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.8	1	0.54	0	22%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.8	1	0.61	1	20%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.7	3	0.58	2	21%	1
OTT S. Halliday	1.7	4	0.47	0	16%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.7	5	0.68	1	24%	1
PHI P. Martone	1.7	4	0.43	2	16%	1
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	1	0.48	1	17%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	0	0.33	0	14%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	0	0.52	1	19%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.4	1	0.38	0	7%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.4	0	0.37	0	15%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.3	1	0.27	0	6%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	2	0.41	0	11%	0
OTT W. Foegele	1.3	4	0.28	0	14%	0
PHI M. Bunting	1.3	2	0.36	1	14%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	2	0.34	0	9%	0
OTT C. Yakemchuk	1.2	2	0.28	0	6%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.2	0	0.38	0	14%	0
PHI O. Bonk	1.1	0	0.32	0	7%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	1	0.21	0	5%	0
PHI N. Acciari	1.1	2	0.26	0	13%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	1	0.30	0	11%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.1	0	0.39	0	17%	0
OTT A. Burakovsky	1.0	0	0.41	0	15%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.0	2	0.43	0	15%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	1	0.29	0	6%	0
PHI D.Jiricek	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
PHI J. Studnicka	0.7	0	0.08	0	4%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.7	1	0.09	0	2%	0
PHI S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.