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Game Recap
OTT0
PIT1
PIT beat OTT 1-0 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.16 expected goals to 2.29. F. Zetterlund had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. T. Jarry stopped 31 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- OT 1:16PITS. CrosbyPP0.13 xG
Team Stats
OTTPIT
31Shots on goal35
2.29Expected goals3.16
53Shot attempts81
295v5 shots on goal32
0/1Power play1/2
32Hits32
21Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways23
1Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 2.29 xGPIT 3.16 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:58 | 1:05 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:07 | 0:58 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:30 | 0:53 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:02 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 1:02 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 1:08 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:54 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:59 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:54 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:58 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24:49 | 1:01 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:45 | 0:59 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:46 | 0:05 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:36 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 35 | 34 | 1 | .971 | 61:16 | OT loss |
| L. Ullmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:35 | 2:47 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 | 2:46 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:18 | 2:48 |
| V. Koivunen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 | 1:31 |
| R. McGroarty | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:31 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:32 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:33 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| E. Bemstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:57 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:37 | 2:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:14 | 0:32 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:23 | 1:19 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 31 | 31 | 0 | 1.000 | 61:14 | Win |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.2, PIT 3.4 | OTT 0, PIT 1 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 29.1, PIT 29.8 | OTT 31, PIT 35 |
| Win chance | PIT 54% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.5 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.8 | 4 | 0.94 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.8 | 6 | 1.19 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.5 | 3 | 0.86 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.1 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.0 | 6 | 0.72 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.8 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 1.8 | 0 | 0.89 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.7 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.7 | 6 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 4 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.5 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT C. Timmins | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT E. Bemstrom | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.