Game Recap: OTT 3, PIT 2, February 2, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

OTT3

FinalMon, Feb 2, 2026Every game that night

PIT2

OTT beat PIT 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.41 expected goals to 2.73. OTT outshot PIT 31 to 16. T. Stützle led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Ullmark stopped 14 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	1	2	3
PIT	1	0	1	2

1st 7:57PITE. Chinakhov0.20 xG
2nd 1:35OTTM. Amadio0.23 xG
3rd 6:46OTTT. Stützle0.04 xG
3rd 8:48PITT. Novak0.89 xG
3rd 14:52OTTC. Giroux0.60 xG

Team Stats

OTTPIT

31Shots on goal16

4.41Expected goals2.73

65Shot attempts39

255v5 shots on goal13

0/5Power play0/1

18Hits25

9Blocked shots17

2Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways18

8Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 4.41 xGPIT 2.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT31 on goal, 3 scored

PIT16 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	1	1	2	4	0	2	+2	0	20:46	5:48
D. Batherson	RW	0	2	2	2	3	0	+2	0	17:12	5:26
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	20:45	3:42
M. Amadio	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	18:59	0:08
C. Giroux	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+2	0	14:25	4:03
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:09	0:54
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	16:31	5:30
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:20	5:30
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	2	15:39	0:08
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:33	0:52
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	9:16	0:00
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	6:46	3:30
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	16:31	4:12
T. Kleven	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	12:37	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	28:02	5:55
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	22:34	0:17
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	20:41	4:05
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	16	14	2	.875	60:00	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	12:12	0:06
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	15:51	1:54
T. Novak	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	11:52	0:00
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	19:35	1:51
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	19:01	1:53
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	16:47	1:41
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:52	0:09
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	14:29	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:28	0:19
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	12:51	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:19	0:00
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:37	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	20:00	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	2	18:49	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	27:20	2:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:01	0:07
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	6	2	-1	2	15:52	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	12:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	31	28	3	.903	57:33	Loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio16:02N. Cousins15:19S. Pinto14:49

Line 2D. Batherson11:46T. Stützle13:17C. Giroux9:49

Line 3B. Tkachuk10:06D. Cozens10:45R. Greig13:41

Line 4L. Eller8:58F. Zetterlund8:41S. Halliday3:16

Pair 1A. Zub18:58J. Sanderson18:20

Pair 2N. Jensen14:14T. Chabot15:28

Pair 3J. Spence12:19T. Kleven11:57

PIT

Line 1R. Rakell14:41S. Crosby15:14A. Mantha12:39

Line 2E. Malkin11:30T. Novak11:52E. Chinakhov12:06

Line 3R. McGroarty10:37B. Kindel11:39J. Brazeau12:05

Line 4C. Dewar7:28B. Lizotte8:13N. Acciari7:43

Pair 1C. Clifton11:35I. Solovyov11:46

Pair 2E. Karlsson19:58P. Wotherspoon15:04

Pair 3B. Kulak18:40R. Shea14:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayJustin Brazeau PIT Turns 28 that day0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.1, PIT 3.3	OTT 3, PIT 2
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	OTT 26.8, PIT 27.2	OTT 31, PIT 16
Win chance	PIT 53%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.2	4	0.73	0	28%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.6	0	0.80	0	29%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.3	0	1.09	0	34%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	4	0.90	2	28%	1
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	1	0.90	1	27%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.0	2	0.56	0	20%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.0	2	0.66	0	12%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.0	3	0.71	0	14%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.9	3	0.56	1	24%	0
OTT D. Batherson	1.9	2	0.69	2	24%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.9	3	0.48	2	21%	1
PIT B. Kindel	1.7	2	0.44	0	18%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.7	2	0.46	0	17%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.6	2	0.50	0	11%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.6	3	0.64	0	23%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	1	0.54	1	20%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	3	0.59	1	19%	1
PIT R. McGroarty	1.4	0	0.27	0	12%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.4	0	0.44	0	19%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.4	0	0.31	0	14%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	0	0.38	0	15%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	2	0.42	1	19%	1
PIT B. Kulak	1.2	1	0.26	0	6%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.2	1	0.30	0	12%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.2	2	0.21	1	4%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.1	1	0.31	1	5%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	1	0.26	0	11%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	0	0.29	0	6%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.0	1	0.36	0	10%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.9	0	0.38	0	15%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.9	1	0.31	1	6%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	0	0.26	1	4%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.9	0	0.24	0	5%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.8	0	0.19	0	8%	0
PIT I. Solovyov	0.8	0	0.22	0	4%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	0	0.24	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.