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Game Recap
OTT2
TBL4
TBL beat OTT 4-2, with the chances close: 3.43 expected goals to 3.27. E. Lilleberg led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Perry had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| TBL | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 0:18OTTD. Cozens0.04 xG
- 1st 4:25OTTJ. Spence0.63 xG
- 2nd 3:37TBLB. Hagel0.15 xG
- 2nd 5:14TBLC. D'Astous0.07 xG
- 3rd 8:51TBLE. Lilleberg0.15 xG
- 3rd 17:48TBLJ. Guentzel0.20 xG
Team Stats
OTTTBL
28Shots on goal27
3.27Expected goals3.43
51Shot attempts76
235v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play0/4
23Hits21
24Blocked shots12
10Penalty minutes6
18Giveaways15
7Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 3.27 xGTBL 3.43 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:55 | 1:16 |
| D. Cozens | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:03 | 1:16 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:41 | 1:16 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:51 | 1:16 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:44 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:44 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:44 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:47 | 0:44 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 27:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 24:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:41 | 0:44 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:00 |
| C. Yakemchuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 13:58 | 1:16 |
| L. Thomson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 58:18 | Loss |
| L. Ullmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:17 | 3:18 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:06 | 4:01 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:25 | 4:05 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:03 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:02 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:35 | 1:33 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 | 4:06 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 19:31 | 1:49 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:12 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:11 | 2:27 |
| S. Sabourin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:50 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 2 | 14:58 | 0:04 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 17:29 | 1:40 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:32 | 4:11 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:48 | 0:22 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:48 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:17 | 0:19 |
| S. Santini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
OTT
Line 1D. Batherson15:34T. Stützle15:49C. Giroux12:09
Line 2B. Tkachuk12:49D. Cozens12:31R. Greig11:56
Line 3S. Pinto12:17M. Amadio12:23N. Cousins11:05
Line 4W. Foegele10:03L. Eller8:47F. Zetterlund9:59
Pair 2L. Thomson10:06N. Matinpalo14:37
Pair 3J. Spence18:57C. Yakemchuk11:58
TBL
Line 1Y. Gourde17:00P. Holmberg14:06Z. Girgensons13:45
Line 2A. Cirelli15:41B. Hagel16:22G. Goncalves15:27
Line 3J. Guentzel13:51B. Point14:54C. Perry13:02
Pair 1D. Raddysh19:04J. Moser18:29
Pair 2E. Lilleberg14:12C. D'Astous15:12
Pair 3R. McDonagh15:32E. Cernak12:30
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.9, TBL 3.2 | OTT 2, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 27.4, TBL 25.4 | OTT 28, TBL 27 |
| Win chance | TBL 56% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.4 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.6 | 4 | 0.84 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.5 | 3 | 0.98 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.3 | 3 | 0.92 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.2 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.2 | 3 | 0.87 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 1.9 | 0 | 0.91 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.7 | 4 | 0.45 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.6 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT W. Foegele | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.3 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.2 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.1 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL C. Perry | 1.0 | 4 | 0.33 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.0 | 1 | 0.39 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| OTT L. Eller | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.9 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT L. Thomson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 3 | 3% | 1 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL S. Sabourin | 0.5 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL S. Santini | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.