Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
OTT4
TOR2
OTT beat TOR 4-2, with the chances close: 3.20 expected goals to 2.45. L. Ullmark stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| TOR | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 6:49TORW. Nylander0.18 xG
- 2nd 7:57OTTJ. Sanderson0.04 xG
- 2nd 8:55TORA. Matthews0.05 xG
- 2nd 12:16OTTD. Perron0.09 xG
- 2nd 14:08OTTC. GirouxPP0.03 xG
- 3rd 19:53OTTM. AmadioEN0.85 xG
Team Stats
OTTTOR
25Shots on goal23
3.20Expected goals2.45
52Shot attempts61
215v5 shots on goal20
1/1Power play0/1
24Hits40
18Blocked shots13
7Penalty minutes7
16Giveaways15
7Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 3.20 xGTOR 2.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:02 | 0:59 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:30 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17:50 | 0:20 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:49 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:53 |
| D. Perron | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:26 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:49 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 8:24 | 0:30 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:18 | 0:57 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 22:15 | 0:22 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 22:03 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:10 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Matthews | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:55 | 1:45 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 | 1:25 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:33 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:40 | 1:47 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:32 | 1:44 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:05 | 1:27 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:35 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:13 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:50 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 23:48 | 0:15 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:42 | 0:16 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 57:39 | Loss |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.9, TOR 3.3 | OTT 4, TOR 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 29.0, TOR 29.4 | OTT 25, TOR 23 |
| Win chance | TOR 56% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.1 | 2 | 1.22 | 1 | 47% | 1 |
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.6 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.2 | 3 | 1.05 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.8 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.2 | 1 | 1.20 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.1 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.1 | 4 | 0.57 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.1 | 0 | 0.93 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.0 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.0 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.9 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.7 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.7 | 4 | 0.65 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.7 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.4 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.6 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.