Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
OTT2
TOR6
TOR beat OTT 6-2, with the chances close: 3.81 expected goals to 3.30. OTT outshot TOR 33 to 24. M. Marner led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Tavares had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. A. Stolarz stopped 31 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| TOR | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 7:09TORO. Ekman-Larsson0.12 xG
- 1st 12:18TORM. Marner0.26 xG
- 1st 16:18OTTD. Batherson0.56 xG
- 2nd 4:07TORJ. TavaresPP0.43 xG
- 2nd 7:19TORW. NylanderPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 4:00OTTR. Greig0.54 xG
- 3rd 4:45TORM. Rielly0.02 xG
- 3rd 13:13TORM. KniesPP0.48 xG
Team Stats
OTTTOR
33Shots on goal24
3.30Expected goals3.81
73Shot attempts52
275v5 shots on goal13
0/2Power play3/6
56Hits30
12Blocked shots18
38Penalty minutes18
17Giveaways15
3Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 3.30 xGTOR 3.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:23 | 1:04 |
| R. Greig | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:51 | 1:01 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 2:11 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15:07 | 1:46 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 12:28 | 0:49 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:15 | 2:15 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:06 | 2:17 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:58 | 2:12 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:49 | 2:08 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 9:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:39 | 1:58 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 25:47 | 2:02 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:52 | 0:17 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:09 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 24 | 18 | 6 | .750 | 59:54 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:00 | 5:53 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:42 | 5:51 |
| J. Tavares | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:58 | 5:54 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:43 | 5:41 |
| M. Knies | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:29 | 6:14 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:20 | 0:07 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:00 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:37 | 1:17 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 11:00 | 1:36 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:39 | 1:58 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:07 | 1:41 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:12 | 1:30 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 19:36 | 0:03 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 17:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.0, TOR 3.4 | OTT 2, TOR 6 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 29.0, TOR 29.0 | OTT 33, TOR 24 |
| Win chance | TOR 57% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.8 | 6 | 1.10 | 2 | 43% | 0 |
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.4 | 5 | 0.61 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 2.9 | 2 | 0.92 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.7 | 6 | 0.85 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.5 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.4 | 4 | 0.71 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.3 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.2 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 2.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.1 | 1 | 1.13 | 3 | 29% | 1 |
| TOR M. Knies | 2.0 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.0 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.9 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.7 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.6 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.6 | 4 | 0.39 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.5 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.4 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.