Game Recap: OTT 2, TOR 3 (OT), April 22, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT2

Final/OTTue, Apr 22, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

TOR3

TOR beat OTT 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 1.85 expected goals to 2.34. J. Tavares led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Cozens had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. A. Stolarz stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
OTT	0	1	1	0	2
TOR	2	0	0	1	3

1st 3:43TORM. Rielly0.08 xG
1st 8:20TORJ. TavaresPP0.06 xG
2nd 15:41OTTB. TkachukPP0.13 xG
3rd 14:47OTTA. Gaudette0.05 xG
OT 3:09TORM. Domi0.18 xG

Team Stats

OTTTOR

28Shots on goal21

2.34Expected goals1.85

75Shot attempts43

195v5 shots on goal20

1/3Power play1/1

44Hits25

6Blocked shots32

4Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways7

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.34 xGTOR 1.85 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT28 on goal, 2 scored

TOR21 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	3	6	0	+1	0	22:17	3:25
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	5	4	0	0	0	20:18	3:38
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:43	1:31
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	6:04	0:00
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-2	0	21:01	3:24
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:39	0:02
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	19:11	0:02
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	5	5	0	-2	0	17:52	3:24
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	17:00	1:24
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:17	1:31
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:50	1:25
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	7:49	0:02
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	-2	0	26:00	1:25
T. Kleven	D	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	0	12:00	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	27:51	3:33
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	24:13	0:04
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:11	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	11:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	21	18	3	.857	63:09	Loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	1	1	2	1	1	3	+1	0	16:57	0:18
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	23:41	0:18
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	3	2	4	+1	0	21:40	0:18
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	3	1	2	+1	0	18:01	0:18
M. Domi	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	13:23	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:29	0:18
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	+1	0	14:40	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:30	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	11:42	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	11:30	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	11:18	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	9:36	0:00
M. Rielly	D	1	0	1	3	0	3	+1	0	21:14	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	0	19:56	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24:09	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	22:00	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	2	20:34	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	+1	0	18:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	28	26	2	.929	63:09	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.0, TOR 3.4	OTT 2, TOR 3
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	OTT 29.1, TOR 28.6	OTT 28, TOR 21
Win chance	TOR 57%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.9	3	1.12	1	43%	0
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.5	5	0.62	1	26%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	3	0.95	1	36%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.8	1	0.88	2	33%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	2.6	2	0.58	0	10%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.4	1	0.69	0	24%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.3	3	0.53	1	11%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	5	0.53	0	19%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.2	1	0.73	0	28%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.1	1	0.43	0	21%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.1	1	1.17	1	30%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	2.0	2	0.38	0	16%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.0	3	0.76	1	23%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	0	0.50	0	21%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.8	0	0.49	0	20%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.7	1	0.44	0	17%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	1	0.37	0	18%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.6	0	0.41	0	16%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	3	0.55	1	8%	1
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.6	0	0.38	0	7%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	1	0.53	1	18%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	2	0.52	1	14%	1
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	0	0.38	0	17%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.3	0	0.39	0	16%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.3	1	0.24	0	10%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.2	1	0.27	1	15%	1
TOR S. Lorentz	1.2	0	0.27	0	12%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	0	0.35	0	6%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	0	0.16	1	4%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	0	0.25	0	5%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.1	1	0.12	0	3%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.0	2	0.24	0	4%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	2	0.19	0	5%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	3	0.29	0	12%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.14	1	3%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.22	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.