OTT beat TOR 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.54 expected goals to 2.77. TOR outshot OTT 29 to 19. B. Tkachuk led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Knies had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Ullmark stopped 29 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 2nd 3:46OTTT. Chabot0.04 xG
- 3rd 8:24OTTD. CozensSH0.27 xG
- 3rd 17:09OTTT. StützleEN0.90 xG
- 3rd 19:13OTTB. TkachukEN0.78 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 3.54 xGTOR 2.77 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:07 | 2:30 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:59 | 2:30 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:38 |
| D. Cozens | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:32 | 2:09 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:28 | 0:01 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 | 0:00 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18:58 | 0:38 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:00 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 2:29 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:57 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:38 | 0:33 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:41 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 18:49 | 0:25 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:27 | 2:44 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | +2 | 0 | 23:46 | 0:06 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:05 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 29 | 29 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 21:52 | 3:24 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:54 | 3:24 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 19:47 | 3:24 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:13 | 3:24 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 2 | 18:05 | 3:24 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 1:29 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:18 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:16 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 1:27 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:14 | 1:33 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:08 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 21:54 | 1:37 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 | 1:35 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:36 | 0:10 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:20 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:12 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 17 | 15 | 2 | .882 | 57:56 | Loss |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.9, TOR 3.4 | OTT 4, TOR 0 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 28.0, TOR 28.1 | OTT 19, TOR 29 |
| Win chance | TOR 58% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.2 | 3 | 1.23 | 0 | 46% | 0 |
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.8 | 5 | 0.69 | 3 | 29% | 1 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.0 | 2 | 1.00 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.8 | 3 | 0.88 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.6 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.4 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.3 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.3 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.2 | 2 | 1.28 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 2.2 | 6 | 0.76 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.1 | 2 | 0.81 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 2.0 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 1.9 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.7 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.6 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.5 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.2 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.