TOR beat OTT 7-5, with the chances close: 3.66 expected goals to 3.75. M. Knies led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Matthews had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. J. Woll stopped 26 of 31.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 3.75 xGTOR 3.66 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:48 |
| S. Halliday | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:43 | 0:45 |
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:12 | 1:16 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:37 | 1:16 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 1:15 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:00 | 0:56 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:26 | 0:44 |
| R. Greig | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| N. Cousins | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:00 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:44 |
| X. Bourgault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:16 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:42 | 1:03 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:20 | 0:57 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 14 | 10 | 4 | .714 | 27:28 | |
| L. Meriläinen | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 30:55 | Loss |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Matthews | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:08 | 2:21 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 | 1:44 |
| M. Knies | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:27 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:54 | 2:47 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:52 | 1:16 |
| B. McMann | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:25 | 1:03 |
| J. Tavares | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:38 | 2:32 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 1:31 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:25 | 1:31 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:27 | 2:44 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 22:14 | 0:24 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:27 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:45 | 0:55 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 31 | 26 | 5 | .839 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Hildeby | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
OTT
TOR
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.9, TOR 2.9 | OTT 5, TOR 7 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 12 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 29.0, TOR 25.5 | OTT 31, TOR 33 |
| Win chance | TOR 50% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 4.1 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.5 | 9 | 1.05 | 3 | 42% | 1 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.6 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 2.4 | 1 | 1.03 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.4 | 0 | 0.59 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.3 | 3 | 0.86 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.3 | 4 | 0.77 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 2.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.9 | 6 | 0.74 | 3 | 25% | 2 |
| TOR B. McMann | 1.9 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.8 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.7 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.6 | 3 | 0.60 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.6 | 5 | 0.42 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.5 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.5 | 1 | 0.55 | 3 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR M. Maccelli | 1.4 | 0 | 0.53 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR N. Roy | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.3 | 3 | 0.40 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| OTT S. Halliday | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR T. Stecher | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 0.9 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR D. Joshua | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.5 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.