Game Recap: OTT 5, TOR 2, February 28, 2026

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Game Recap

OTT5

FinalSat, Feb 28, 2026Every game that night

TOR2

OTT beat TOR 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.06 expected goals to 2.16. OTT outshot TOR 40 to 23. D. Cozens led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Batherson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. L. Ullmark stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	1	4	0	5
TOR	1	1	0	2

1st 2:52TORM. Rielly0.10 xG
1st 10:59OTTT. Chabot0.12 xG
2nd 3:03OTTD. Cozens0.32 xG
2nd 13:05OTTD. Batherson0.13 xG
2nd 13:56TORW. Nylander0.67 xG
2nd 15:15OTTD. Batherson0.10 xG
2nd 16:06OTTD. CozensPP0.13 xG

Team Stats

OTTTOR

40Shots on goal23

4.06Expected goals2.16

73Shot attempts43

315v5 shots on goal18

1/3Power play0/2

27Hits24

6Blocked shots15

15Penalty minutes23

12Giveaways13

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 4.06 xGTOR 2.16 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT39 on goal, 5 scored

TOR23 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Cozens	C	2	1	3	4	6	0	+1	2	16:23	2:56
D. Batherson	RW	2	0	2	5	1	0	+1	0	17:46	2:58
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	3	4	0	0	0	18:31	2:58
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	6	6	0	+2	2	15:37	2:59
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+2	0	10:14	0:00
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	2	17:34	1:56
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:00	0:00
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:15	1:55
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	13:43	0:00
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:06	1:50
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7	11:50	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:46	0:00
T. Chabot	D	1	1	2	3	0	2	+2	0	21:54	1:46
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	23:12	3:05
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	20:23	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:40	1:52
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	16:46	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+3	0	16:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	23	21	2	.913	60:00	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	0	17:55	2:03
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:47	2:21
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:37	1:45
S. Laughton	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	5	14:13	0:39
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:07	2:11
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:08	0:00
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	15:37	1:53
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	13:53	1:55
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:34	0:58
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:00	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	12	11:57	0:54
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:42	0:58
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	22:46	0:45
M. Rielly	D	1	0	1	3	0	4	+2	2	21:01	2:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	19:50	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	0	18:00	0:12
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	6	1	-2	2	17:51	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	0	17:27	1:26

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	28	23	5	.821	35:50	Loss
A. Stolarz	12	12	0	1.000	23:54

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1B. Tkachuk12:01D. Cozens12:44R. Greig11:48

Line 2M. Amadio14:47S. Pinto13:35N. Cousins11:34

Line 3D. Batherson13:40T. Stützle12:42C. Giroux12:37

Line 4L. Eller10:35F. Zetterlund10:14S. Halliday10:16

Pair 1J. Sanderson17:03A. Zub17:07

Pair 2J. Spence16:48T. Kleven15:05

Pair 3N. Jensen14:58T. Chabot16:51

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares13:44M. Maccelli14:04W. Nylander13:33

Line 2E. Cowan12:36N. Roy12:47B. McMann11:11

Line 3M. Domi10:47A. Matthews13:17M. Knies12:59

Line 4S. Laughton10:36D. Joshua10:52N. Robertson9:44

Pair 1M. Rielly16:42B. Carlo16:51

Pair 2J. McCabe17:43T. Stecher15:12

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson14:54S. Benoit16:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.4, TOR 3.1	OTT 5, TOR 2
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	OTT 31.0, TOR 24.9	OTT 40, TOR 23
Win chance	OTT 53%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.7	6	0.76	1	28%	0
TOR A. Matthews	3.4	2	1.12	1	43%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.4	0	0.87	0	33%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	3	0.90	1	27%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	4	0.60	3	20%	2
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	4	0.59	0	24%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.2	3	1.01	1	34%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	5	0.73	2	24%	2
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	1	0.69	1	13%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.1	3	0.52	0	25%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.8	3	0.53	2	12%	1
TOR M. Knies	1.7	0	0.74	0	25%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.7	3	0.44	0	16%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.6	1	0.36	0	14%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	3	0.54	1	10%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.6	0	0.60	0	16%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	2	0.46	0	19%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	1	0.56	0	17%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	2	0.43	0	19%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.5	1	0.52	1	17%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	1	0.50	0	10%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.3	1	0.27	1	12%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.2	1	0.35	0	6%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.2	1	0.35	0	13%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	1	0.34	1	15%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.2	0	0.20	0	4%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	1	0.30	0	7%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	0	0.20	0	6%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.0	0	0.41	0	15%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	2	0.35	1	6%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.0	2	0.34	0	10%	0
TOR B. Carlo	0.9	3	0.16	0	4%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.9	1	0.18	0	8%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	1	0.31	0	15%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.8	1	0.26	0	5%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.