Game Recap: OTT 3, TOR 2, October 3, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

OTT3

FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026Every game that night

TOR2

OTT beat TOR 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.67 expected goals to 3.16. T. Chabot led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Sissons had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. L. Ullmark stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	1	1	1	3
TOR	0	2	0	2

1st 18:51OTTT. Chabot0.05 xG
2nd 0:33TORA. Matthews0.08 xG
2nd 7:06TORK. MarchenkoPP0.12 xG
2nd 12:40OTTM. Amadio0.25 xG
3rd 9:46OTTS. Halliday0.10 xG

Team Stats

OTTTOR

29Shots on goal29

4.67Expected goals3.16

53Shot attempts67

185v5 shots on goal24

0/4Power play1/4

29Hits18

20Blocked shots10

10Penalty minutes10

15Giveaways18

1Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 4.67 xGTOR 3.16 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT28 on goal, 3 scored

TOR28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Giroux	RW	0	2	2	4	1	0	+1	2	18:17	3:27
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	2	3	2	+1	2	22:51	4:31
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	4	4	0	+1	2	20:27	3:32
M. Amadio	RW	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	19:13	0:05
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:06	3:19
S. Halliday	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	10:07	3:25
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:02	4:28
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:17	4:29
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	2	16:16	4:31
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	13:01	0:05
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	7:21	0:00
H. Hodgson	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	5:10	0:00
T. Chabot	D	1	1	2	2	0	7	+2	0	27:06	3:25
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:30	0:08
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	2	21:43	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:48	0:00
C. Yakemchuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	17:50	4:35
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	29	27	2	.931	60:00	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	6	0	1	+1	0	21:50	5:24
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	21:25	4:53
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	2	2	1	-1	4	19:26	4:37
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	18:03	4:54
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	17:03	1:33
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	14:49	1:47
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	-2	0	14:24	0:00
G. McKenna	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:46	1:27
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	4	12:07	0:52
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:24	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	9:51	0:00
B. Groulx	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	7:22	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	22:46	5:06
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	18:23	1:08
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	18:10	0:03
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:45	0:14
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:28	0:12
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	17:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	29	26	3	.897	58:50	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1T. Stützle14:26W. Foegele11:18D. Batherson13:09

Line 2C. Giroux13:08M. Amadio14:11S. Pinto12:01

Line 3D. Cozens10:35W. Eklund10:55F. Zetterlund8:47

Line 4N. Cousins6:38H. Hodgson5:10S. Halliday6:42

Pair 1T. Chabot18:13J. Spence18:53

Pair 2T. Kleven17:14N. Matinpalo13:49

Pair 3C. Yakemchuk12:22J. Sanderson4:29

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews13:51K. Marchenko13:19J. Roslovic12:52

Line 2E. Cowan11:11N. Paul10:45C. Sissons9:44

Line 3J. Tavares11:05G. McKenna10:13W. Nylander14:06

Line 4T. Blueger7:18B. Duhaime6:35B. Groulx7:22

Pair 1M. Rielly15:33D. Raddysh15:36

Pair 2C. Tanev12:30J. McCabe12:57

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson13:16T. Stecher13:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 16 overs hit (44%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	+106	-135	6	Over
OTT D. Batherson	2.5	+140	-176	2	Under
OTT D. Cozens	2.5	-110	-106	2	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	2.5	+110	-130	2	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	2.5	+140	-190	0	Under
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	+160	-165	3	Over
OTT T. Stützle	2.5	-102	-110	2	Under
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	-105	-114	2	Under
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	-105	-125	4	Over
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	+110	-140	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	-115	-110	1	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	1.5	-115	-115	2	Over
OTT S. Pinto	1.5	-140	+118	4	Over
OTT T. Chabot	1.5	-115	+100	2	Over
OTT W. Eklund	1.5	-140	+130	4	Over
OTT W. Foegele	1.5	-110	-105	0	Under

4 of 34 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+160	-210	1	Over
TOR B. Duhaime	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
TOR B. Groulx	0.5	+1000	-1400	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+430	-600	0	Under
TOR C. Sissons	0.5	+850	-1200	0	Under
TOR C. Tanev	0.5	+2100	–	0	Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+750	-2500	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+260	-300	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+360	-600	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+400	-700	0	Under
OTT H. Hodgson	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+2100	-4000	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	+575	-800	0	Under
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	+220	-310	0	Under
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+525	-900	1	Over
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
OTT N. Cousins	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.5	+1700	–	0	Under
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+500	–	0	Under
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+1100	-1600	1	Over
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
TOR T. Blueger	0.5	+950	-1400	0	Under
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+700	-2000	1	Over
OTT T. Kleven	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
TOR T. Stecher	0.5	+2500	-3500	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
OTT W. Eklund	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
OTT W. Foegele	0.5	+420	-650	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+200	-220	0	Under

7 of 14 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+240	-330	2	Over
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+180	-225	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+122	-150	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+280	-370	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+260	-340	0	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	+125	-165	0	Under
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	+160	-185	1	Over
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+215	-260	1	Over
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+235	-330	1	Over
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	-105	-120	1	Over
OTT W. Eklund	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+130	-175	1	Over

9 of 15 overs hit (60%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	-190	+150	1	Over
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+140	-175	2	Over
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	-130	+105	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	-115	-115	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	-120	-105	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+140	-170	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	-110	-115	0	Under
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	-145	+115	1	Over
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+165	-190	1	Over
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+160	-200	1	Over
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+165	-190	2	Over
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	-190	+155	1	Over
OTT W. Eklund	0.5	-118	-105	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	-165	+135	1	Over

2 of 10 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+185	-280	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+210	-350	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+235	-400	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+235	-400	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	+210	-350	0	Under
TOR J. Tavares	0.5	+260	-450	1	Over
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+160	-240	0	Under
OTT W. Eklund	0.5	+210	-350	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+200	-300	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
TOR S. Bobrovsky	25.5	-105	-114	26	Over
OTT L. Ullmark	24.5	-102	-125	27	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.5, TOR 3.0	OTT 3, TOR 2
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	OTT 32.3, TOR 24.3	OTT 29, TOR 29
Win chance	OTT 58%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.4	6	0.94	1	39%	1
OTT D. Cozens	2.8	2	0.71	0	24%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.7	2	1.07	1	30%	0
TOR D. Raddysh	2.7	2	0.70	1	16%	0
TOR K. Marchenko	2.6	2	0.79	1	29%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.6	2	1.05	1	36%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.5	2	0.89	0	29%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.3	4	0.64	1	25%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.3	2	0.64	2	15%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	2.2	0	0.71	0	15%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.2	3	0.80	1	30%	0
OTT C. Giroux	2.0	4	0.64	2	19%	0
OTT W. Eklund	1.9	4	0.58	0	15%	0
TOR J. Roslovic	1.7	2	0.46	0	19%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.7	2	0.48	0	9%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	1	0.33	1	13%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	0	0.53	0	18%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.4	1	0.45	1	10%	0
OTT C. Yakemchuk	1.4	1	0.43	0	7%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.4	2	0.39	1	12%	1
OTT T. Kleven	1.4	1	0.27	0	6%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	1	0.45	1	18%	1
TOR N. Paul	1.3	2	0.33	0	16%	0
TOR T. Blueger	1.2	0	0.34	0	11%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.1	0	0.35	0	7%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	0	0.27	0	9%	0
TOR C. Sissons	1.1	4	0.27	0	11%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.0	1	0.13	0	3%	0
TOR B. Groulx	0.9	1	0.17	0	9%	0
TOR T. Stecher	0.9	2	0.17	0	5%	0
TOR B. Duhaime	0.9	0	0.17	0	9%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	1	0.27	0	5%	0
OTT H. Hodgson	0.8	0	0.16	0	7%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	0	0.20	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.